The Pellucid Perspective - November 2013 - (Page 2)

GOLF COURSE OPERATIONS A silver lining in 2013: Golf 's largest markets figure out how to beat the weather Utilization rates a positive sign for 2014? By Jim Koppenhaver W ith the 3rd quarter rounds numbers now in to complement the previously-released Golf Playable Hours (GPH), we can take a look to see how the largest US golf markets fared in the key metric of Utilization; in other words, did they beat, lag or mirror what Mother Nature provided them for the majority of the 2013 season? If one simply looks at rounds and compares it to last year, only 6 markets in the US would be classified as "winners" (positive year-over-year figures); four in California (Orange County, Sacramento, San Diego, San Francisco/Oakland) and the remaining two in Florida (Orlando, Miami/Ft. Lauderdale). This however is precisely why we introduced quantitative weather impact tracking to the golf industry, because we believed that a weather-neutral view of the world would produce a more accurate picture of which markets actually produced the highest throughput efficiency for their golf "factories" after factoring in the uncontrollable variable of weather (good and bad). Since it's too detailed and tedious to map out how all 61 markets fared through September in Utilization (and, as importantly, we want to sell it to you), we're going to do a quick review of how the Top 10 US Golf Markets by annual facilityreported rounds ("through-the-turnstiles" as business colleague Stuart Lindsay always clarifies) fared in beating the weather and whether their results led, lagged or mirrored the national averages. By our tally, all but one of the Top 10 markets posted higher productivity through September, which is an encouraging sign, a silver lining if you will, for potential growth in 2014. The table below shows the supporting evidence for the above statement. Let us set up the key measures and then show how to interpret the results. The first column in the body of the table is the rounds percent change for each of the Top 10 Markets as reported by Golf Datatech in their recently-released September report. As you can see, the Top 10 mirrors the national landscape with more markets posting negative vs. positive "comps" through September on rounds demand with the exceptions of Orange County and Miami/Ft. Lauderdale which posted gains and Phoenix and Los Angeles managing to post results in the neutral zone (+/- 2%). The second column in the table body is Pellucid's GPH results for the year-to-date period. As also noted above, weather has not been kind to us this year either relative to last year (near record) or vs. the long-term (most weather has also been pushing the low side of the multi-year estimates). The insightful column on the report is at the far right when we merge rounds demand and weather impact to get the Utilization change figure. As you can see by the absence of red numbers in this column, this is the silver lining (apologies to Sandra Bullock) we see in the Utilization performance for the Top 10 rounds markets in the US coming out of the 2013 season. The Utilization winners among the Top 10 US Golf Markets (by rounds demand) are New York City and Washington DC/ Baltimore, increasing the efficiency of their "factories" by over 3 points in both markets. You can see that both also took the same path to victory: abysmal comparable year weather but finding a September 2013 Market/State(s) Current YtD 2012 % Util. Rate Rounds Rank Rounds % Change GPH % Change Util Rate Pt. Change New York City 40% 1 -7% -14% 3.6 Chicago 49% 2 -9% -11% 1.2 Phoenix* 52% 3 -1% -3% 1.2 Los Angeles* 55% 4 -2% 0% (1.2) Orange County* 54% 5 3% 0% 1.5 Miami/Ft. Lauderdale* 44% 6 4% 2% 0.8 Boston 54% 7 -5% -6% 0.8 Minneapolis/St. Paul 52% 8 -12% -15% 1.8 Washington DC/Baltimore 53% 9 -7% -12% 3.3 Philadelphia 43% 10 -8% -12% 1.9 -5% -7% 0.7 Total US 2 The Pellucid PersPecTive November 2013

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - November 2013

TOC
A silver lining in 2013: Golf's largest markets figure out how to beat the weather
What's wrong with this picture?
USGA approval of OnCore hollow core ball technology an interesting development
A new determinant on "weather" golfers play or not?
Golf's interests protected in TopGolf lease agreement
October golf weather impact: 4th consecutive month in positive territory
Orlando: Courses in golf's meeting mecca surviving
Edwin Watts Golf Shopes files for bankruptcy, Watts family hoping to regain control
Pace of play campaigns missing the point

The Pellucid Perspective - November 2013