The Pellucid Perspective - September 2015 - (Page 15)

Market focus Price is right, but demand still lags in Tampa Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater FL Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA) I n this monthly section we profile one of the Top 25 US Golf Markets which is based on a Pellucid composite score of the golfer base, the supply level and rounds demand. Within that Top 25 universe, we then rank them based on relative health using a Pellucid weighted scoring system on 8 variables ranging from Population Growth to Estimated Profitabilityper-Available Round. In this issue, we'll profile the 13th healthiest market, the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA). In the land of their beloved "fighting fish" (Marlins) and swashbuckling footballers (Buccaneers), a good number of them also make time for golf during their full 12-month season. As we'll see in the analysis below, Tampa is one of the homes of affordable golf but, unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be translating into world-class utilization or revenue generation, which is an interesting case study on the affordability of golf being a key handicap for growth of our sport. By rounds demand (one of our 3 selection criteria for initial inclusion in the Top 25 list), the Tampa CBSA ranks number 13 among US markets with facility-reported annual demand of just over 5M rounds. (That facility-reported tally counts both local and tourist play). Looking at the golf consumer base, we see that the Tampa CBSA is home to a relatively modest local golfer base of roughly 235K golfers (20th ranking in the US, but remember this is only local, resident population, doesn't count the tourist crowd). That golfer base is served by an equally modest supply amount of 141 18-hole equivalents (EHE), producing a healthy ratio of roughly 1.7K local resident golfers per EHE, very similar to the national average. The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's five access/value/usage segments skews significantly to Private, at 35% of total holes compared to the national average of 27%. The Private vs. Public access balance is 35%/65%, again out of balance vs. the national average of 27%/73%. (Remember however that Private isn't always exclusive. In some markets, such as here, it can also represent moderate-priced, pre-paid golf facilities). The balance of Value-added golf supply (Private & Public-Premium) vs. Value golf (Public-Value, Price and Learning & Practice) is 49%/51%, which is in line with the 50%/50% national distribution. Within Public-Regulation golf (which removes the huge Private bias influence), the distribution between Premium/Value/Price is 25%/47%/29% vs. the national picture of 34%/42%/24% which shows, outside of the Private skew, that the Public-access, regulation supply skew is towards Private PublicPremium PublicValue PublicPrice Learning & Practice Tampa-St Pete. Clearwater FL CBSA Golfer Base - Est. # of Golfers (Ks) - # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities - Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv. Supply Mix - Private - Pub-Prem - Pub-Val - Pub-Price - Learn & Prac Supply/Demand Balance - '00-'13 Cume Supply Growth/Decline** - '00-'13 Cume Rds Demand Growth/ Decline** - '00-'13 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution (-)/Absorption (+) Level* - Avg Ann Rds Velocity (Ks per 18-hole vs. ks) (EHE)* ** Rounds & GF Revenue Health - % Utilization Rate - Avg. Ann. Rev. per Public Regulation EHE ($Ks) - Revenue per Available Round (RevpAR) Future Facility Tot US Index vs. US 235.1 22,900 141 14,672 1,673 1,561 107 35% 14% 26% 16% 8% 27% 23% 28% 16% 6% 130 60 94 102 136 4% -1% 9% -12% 43 11 -5% -21% 25 33.5 33.8 99 41% 56% $1,048 $1,155 $13 $19 73 91 68 * Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply ** Inverse index, lower is better Above average level vs. US (Index >105) Average level vs. US (Index 95-104) Below average level vs. US (Index <95) The Pellucid PersPecTive 15

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - September 2015

EZLinks acquires GolfSwitch
Youth on Course provides win-win for golf and juniors
Breaking News: Golf is getting passed in technology and information use by...farming
Private clubs struggle to combat the “equity club death spiral”
Payment Processing: Are you confused?
August golf weather impact: Weather and stocks decline
Price is right, but demand still lags in Tampa
Is golf doomed to rely only on ‘aspirational’ golfers?

The Pellucid Perspective - September 2015