The Pellucid Perspective - November 2015 - (Page 15)
Market focus
Boston needs some
'deflation' in supply
Boston MA Metro Core Business
Statistical Area (CBSA)
I
n this monthly section we profile one of the Top 25 US
Golf Markets based on a Pellucid composite score of the
golfer base, the supply level and rounds demand. Within
that Top 25 universe, we then rank them based on relative
health using a Pellucid weighted scoring system on 8 variables ranging from Population Growth to Estimated Profitability-per-Available Round. In this issue, we'll profile the
15th healthiest market, the Boston MA Metro Core Business
Statistical Area (CBSA).
With its well-known political left-leaning, Boston is proof
that golf rises above politics and is one thing that Democrats
and Republicans can likely agree on. While neither GOLF
Magazine nor Golf Digest have yet done a survey or run a story
on golf participation among the LGBT population (wait it's
coming...), you can be sure that some part of the Boston residents will be enlisted in that effort and we'll also likely discover
that golf is gender-blind as well. (Although women might tell
you otherwise and the fact that we continue at only 25% of
golfers being women would probably support their case). Regardless, Boston seems to like golf as much, if not more, than
many other of the major metro areas in the US. When it's not
snowing, they're playing.
By rounds demand (one of our 3 selection criteria for initial
inclusion in the Top 25 list), the Boston CBSA ranks number
7 among US markets with facility-reported annual demand of
just under 7M rounds. (That facility-reported tally counts both
local and tourist play). Looking at the golf consumer base, we
see that the Boston CBSA is home to a healthy local golfer
base of roughly 509K golfers (5th ranking in the US, remember
this is only local, resident population, doesn't count the tourist crowd). That golfer base is served by a reasonable supply
amount of 183 18-hole equivalents (EHE) producing a healthy
ratio of roughly 2.8K local resident golfers per EHE, well above
the national average.
The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's five access/value/usage segments skews to Private at 33%
of total holes compared to the national average of 27%. The
Private vs. Public access balance is 33%/67%, differing from
the national average of 27%/73%. The balance of Value-added
golf supply (Private & Public-Premium) vs. Value golf (PublicValue, Price and Learning & Practice) is 50%/50%, which is
dead on the 50%/50% national distribution. Within PublicRegulation golf, the distribution between Premium/Value/Price
is 29%/46%/25% vs. the national picture of 34%/42%/24%,
which shows that the Public-access regulation supply skew is
towards the affordable golf segments vs. the US benchmark
www.PellucidCorp.com
Private
PublicPremium
PublicValue
Golfer Base
- Est. # of Golfers (Ks)
- # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities
- Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv.
PublicPrice
Learning
& Practice
Boston MA
CBSA
Supply Mix
- Private
- Pub-Prem
- Pub-Val
- Pub-Price
- Learn & Prac
Supply/Demand Balance
- '00-'13 Cume Supply Growth/Decline*
- '00-'13 Cume Rds Demand Growth/
Decline*
- '00-'13 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution
(-)/Absorption (+) Level* **
- Avg Ann Rds Velocity (Ks per 18-hole
vs. ks) (EHE)
Rounds & GF Revenue Health
- % Utilization Rate
- Avg. Ann. Rev. per Public
Regulation EHE ($Ks)
- Revenue per Available Round
(RevpAR)
Future
Facility
Tot US
Index
vs. US
508.8 22,900
183 14,672
2,788 1,561
179
33%
17%
27%
15%
9%
27%
23%
28%
16%
6%
123
73
95
91
151
17%
-10%
9%
-12%
186
89
-27%
-21%
131
29.3
33.8
87
54%
56%
$1,368 $1,155
$25
$19
96
118
132
* Inverse index, lower is better
** Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply
Above average level vs. US (Index >105)
Average level vs. US (Index 95-104)
Below average level vs. US (Index <95)
The Pellucid PersPecTive
15
http://www.PellucidcorP.com
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - November 2015
TOC
Payment processing again – Have you inserted your chip card?
Members lose club over gender discrimination suit
NGF Suggests that 30M Golfers Was “A Bubble”
IBM buys parent of The Weather Channel: Why you should pay attention
Beverage cart really a goose laying golden eggs?
October golf weather impact: Neutral nationally, tough for Texas
Boston needs some ‘deflation’ in supply
Singing the blues in Memphis
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