The Pellucid Perspective - December 2015 - (Page 14)

Market focus Fiesta for OSU football, golf not so much Columbus OH Metro Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA) I n this monthly section we profile one of the Top 25 US Golf Markets based on a Pellucid composite score of the golfer base, the supply level and rounds demand. Within that Top 25 universe, we then rank them based on relative health using a Pellucid weighted scoring system on 8 variables ranging from Population Growth to Estimated Profitability-per-Available Round. In this issue, we'll profile the 16th healthiest market, the Columbus OH Metro Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA). You can't talk about Columbus OH without mentioning The Ohio State Buckeyes football and, although stinging from a loss to Michigan State, they brought home the bacon in soundly defeating the Michigan Wolverines so that ought to send everyone out to the golf courses to celebrate, right? Long known as one of the "homes of affordable golf," we can see above and in the below commentary that it is evolving to more upscale, which has upside and downside implications. Columbus also enjoys a slightly longer season than most would think in spite of its north-of-the-Mason Dixon line latitude. So let's see how easy or hard it is to be an operator in the "Crossroads of Ohio." By rounds demand (one of our 3 selection criteria for initial inclusion in the Top 25 list), the Columbus CBSA ranks 22nd among US markets with facility-reported annual demand of just over 3M rounds (that facility-reported tally counts both local and tourist play). Looking at the golf consumer base, we see that the Columbus CBSA is home to a healthy local golfer base of roughly 196K golfers (also 22nd ranking in the US, remember this is only local, resident population, doesn't count the tourist crowd). That golfer base is served by a reasonable supply amount of 102 18-hole equivalents (EHE), producing a healthy ratio of roughly 1.9K local resident golfers per EHE, well above the national average. The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's five access/value/usage segments skews to Private at 32% of total holes compared to the national average of 27%. The Private vs. Public access balance is 32%/68%, differing from the national average of 27%/73%. The balance of Value-added golf supply (Private & Public-Premium) vs. Value golf (Public-Value, Price and Learning & Practice) is 56%/44%, which skews to Valueadded vs. the 50%/50% national distribution. Within PublicRegulation golf, the distribution between Premium/Value/Price is 38%/47%/15% vs. the national picture of 34%/42%/24%, which also shows that the Public-access regulation supply skews slightly toward the higher-priced end vs. the US benchmark (85% is Premium/Value vs. 76% nationally). Remember 14 The Pellucid PersPecTive Private PublicPremium PublicValue Golfer Base - Est. # of Golfers (Ks) - # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities - Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv. PublicPrice Learning & Practice Columbus OH CBSA Supply Mix - Private - Pub-Prem - Pub-Val - Pub-Price - Learn & Prac Supply/Demand Balance - '00-'13 Cume Supply Growth/Decline* - '00-'13 Cume Rds Demand Growth/ Decline* - '00-'13 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution (-)/Absorption (+) Level* ** - Avg Ann Rds Velocity (Ks per 18-hole vs. ks) (EHE) Rounds & GF Revenue Health - % Utilization Rate - Avg. Ann. Rev. per Public Regulation EHE ($Ks) - Revenue per Available Round (RevpAR) Future Facility Tot US Index vs. US 195.6 22,900 102 14,672 1,918 1,561 123 32% 24% 30% 9% 4% 27% 23% 28% 16% 6% 120 104 107 58 74 13% -7% 9% -12% 143 56 -20% -21% 94 26.4 26.7 99 49% 56% $719 $1,155 $13 $19 88 62 68 * Inverse index, lower is better ** Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply Above average level vs. US (Index >105) Average level vs. US (Index 95-104) Below average level vs. US (Index <95) December 2015

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - December 2015

TOC
Winds of change blowing at NGCOA?
The one that no one saw coming: The GPAPA
Naughty and nice – Best wishes for the New Year
CaddieMaster joins the Troon family
November golf weather impact: Off the Charts! Better East than West
Columbus, OH: Fiesta for OSU football, golf not so much
Single? No posting allowed

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