The Pellucid Perspective - February 2016 - (Page 10)

Golf industry transactions January golf weather impact: All good things come to an end a fter an incredible finish to the 2015 season weather-wise, January's results returned to earth as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) registered -6% vs. Year Ago (YA). That result yields the same figure for Year-to-Date (YtD) with only one month reporting. The YtD regional positive/negative breadth ratio starts in the "red zone" at 1:3 with 6 regions having favorable weather against 22 regions with unfavorable weather (none in the neutral zone of +/- 2%, the remaining 17 are out-of-season). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, unfavorability is concentrated in weekdays vs. weekends almost diametrically. Looking to the year-end forecast for GPH, we're January YtD 2016 Month Capacity Rds, % Change vs. YA -6% YtD Capacity Rds, % Chng vs. YA -6% YtD Up/Down Breadth Ratio # of Regions Up # of Regions Down 1:3 6 17 YtD % Utilization Rate (Dec '15) 50% YtD % Utilization Rate Pt. Chng vs. YA (Dec '15) -1 pt 10 The Pellucid PersPecTive seeing stability vs. the previous year and potential upside to the 10-year average. The supporting figures for the 2016 full-year comparative GPH for Total US, the comparison to the 10-year average and the day-of-week breakdowns are available to Geographic Weather Impact Tracking report purchasers or Pellucid Publications Members via the Client Login section at the Pellucid website (go to to subscribe or for more information; for information-seekers we'll send you a sample of the '15 1st half actual results to review). Looking back at December rounds played as reported by Golf Datatech/NGF to calculate the facility % Utilization Rate (UR), the double-digit rounds demand increase lagged the 3x GPH favorability, producing a sizeable drop in Utilization for the month. (A better interpretation is that all the demand upside and then some was due to weather). For the YtD period, we saw a slight drop in Utilization as the positive rounds demand for the year lagged a slightly larger increase in GPH. The supporting figures are also contained in the Geographic Weather Impact Tracking report or Pellucid Publications Membership monthly updates. Jim Koppenhaver comments, "From a weather perspective, we were likely living on borrowed time coming off a Q4 that was up 19% in GPH and two successive months of 20%+ gains; that tree can't continue growing to the sky, unfortunately. The unfaFebruary 2016

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - February 2016

PerformanceTrak rides off into the sunset: What’s next?
Millenials are only part of the story; don’t forget the rest
Scoundrels or saviors depends on one’s point of view
January golf weather impact: All good things come to an end
Tough love, brother, in Philly market
Slow life in the fast lane

The Pellucid Perspective - February 2016