The Pellucid Perspective - April 2016 - (Page 13)

MARKET FOCUS Sadly for operators, MLB team not the only "reds" in Cincinnati golf market Cincinnati, OH Metro Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA) I n this monthly section we profile one of the Top 25 US Golf Markets based on a Pellucid composite score of the golfer base, supply level and rounds demand. Within that Top 25 universe, we then rank them based on relative health using a Pellucid weighted scoring system of 8 variables ranging from Population Growth to Estimated Profitability-per-Available Round. In this issue, we'll profile the 19th healthiest market, the Cincinnati Metro Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA). In the heart of the Great Lakes region and at the confluence of the Licking and Ohio rivers, Cincinnati is home to corporate bellwether Proctor & Gamble (I interviewed there for my first job out of the Marine Corps), the baseball Reds and football Bengals (also the zoo features white Bengal tigers, coincidence?) as well as the American Sign museum (to compete with the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in Cleveland one would surmise). It's a combination of Midwest values, a wide range of incomes and an average length golf season with relatively mild winters. All in all, not a bad place to be a golfer but let's see how hospitable it is to be on the operator's side of the equation in the city named after the Roman general Cincinnatus. By rounds demand (one of our 3 selection criteria for initial inclusion in the Top 25 list), the Cincinnati CBSA ranks 20th among US markets with facility-reported annual demand of just under 3.5M rounds. (That facility-reported tally counts both local and tourist play). Looking at the golf consumer base, we see that Cincy is home to a healthy local golfer base of roughly 0.2M golfers (ranking 21st in the US, remember this is only local, resident population, doesn't count the tourist crowd). That golfer base is served by a reasonable supply amount of 115 18-hole equivalents (EHE) producing a healthy ratio of roughly 1.8K local resident golfers per EHE, just above the national average. The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's five access/value/usage segments is probably as balanced as you're going to see in a major metro market. The Private vs. Public access balance is 28%/72% which is virtually dead on the national average of 27%/73%. The balance of Value-added golf supply (Private & Public-Premium) vs. Value golf (Public-Value, Price and Learning & Practice) is 50%/50%, which matches the 50%/50% national distribution. Within Public-Regulation golf, the distribution between Premium/Value/Price is 33%/47%/19% vs. the national picture of 34%/42%/24%, which shows that the Public-access regulation supply clusters slightly in the middle range at the expense of Price (13% Price local vs. 16% nationally). Remember that in this particular analysis Pellucid allows the definitions of Premium/Value/Price to "float" across each of the markets, driven by the local market price spectrum, so the absolute price of golf isn't necessarily revealed by a balanced Private PublicPremium PublicValue Golfer Base - Est. # of Golfers (Ks) - # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities - Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv. PublicPrice Learning & Practice Cincinnati, OH CBSA Tot US 204.9 22,900 115 14,672 1,790 1,561 Supply Mix - Private - Pub-Prem - Pub-Val - Pub-Price - Learn & Prac Supply/Demand Balance - '00-'13 Cume Supply Growth/Decline* - '00-'13 Cume Rds Demand Growth/ Decline * - '00-'13 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution (-)/Absorption (+) Level* ** - Avg Ann Rds Velocity (Ks per 18-hole vs. ks) (EHE) Rounds & GF Revenue Health - % Utilization Rate - Avg. Ann. Rev. per Public Regulation EHE ($Ks) - Revenue per Available Round (RevpAR) Future Facility Index vs. US 115 28% 22% 31% 13% 6% 27% 23% 28% 16% 6% 105 95 111 79 102 5% -9% 9% -12% 57 78 -14% -21% 69 25.1 26.7 94 45% 56% $1,038 $1,155 80 90 $13 $19 68 * Inverse index, lower is better ** Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply Above average level vs. US (Index 105+) Average level vs. US (Index 95-104) Below average level vs. US (Index <95) The Pellucid PersPecTive 13

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - April 2016

The Pellucid Perspective - April 2016
In search of meaningful operations performance measurement
We have a data problem in golf. Let’s fix it
EZLinks Golf expands customer base, technology resources with IBS acquisition
Devote article
On the scene in Myrtle Beach: Owners lighting candles vs. cursing the darkness
March weather impact: Strong first quarter finish, mixed by geography
Sadly for operators, MLB team not the only “reds” in Cincinnati golf market
Golf ’s use of the President - a whiff or a stiff?

The Pellucid Perspective - April 2016