The Pellucid Perspective - September 2016 - 15

price of golf isn't necessarily revealed by a balanced distribution (i.e. Value golf could run the range of $35-$70 depending on the local cost-of-living variances). During the "go-go" years of supply development (1990-2000), St. Louis was at the vanguard of the nation's "build a course a day" craze, increasing supply at an annual rate of ~5% (wow, no that's not a typo and compared to the (unreasonable) US average of >2%). In tandem to this, annual population growth was minimal (<1% vs. the national average of ~1%). Using our pre-2000 calculation for supply dilution/absorption (supply change vs. population change), we estimate that the market was at ~43% dilution at the turn of the century vs. the 1990 benchmark (vs. the US average of 11% "overhang"). Since 2000, the annual rate of supply growth has throttled back significantly (<0.5%) while the population growth rate hasn't changed materially. A better available metric however for supply dilution/absorption in the post-2000 period (because we have semi-accurate facility-reported rounds figures at state and market level) is comparing supply growth to the changes in rounds demand. Since 2000, the market has experienced a slight decline in the annual rounds demand rate (~1% similar to the national average of -1% annually) which yields increased supply dilution of ~16% during the '00-'13 period. Combining the '90-'00 decade dilution rate and the '00-'13 period results, the average facility in the market is ~59% worse off than they were at the '90 benchmark (considerably higher than the national supply dilution of 27% for that same '90-'13 period). So, relative to the national picture and other markets we've studied in the Top 25, St. Louis and its operators are fighting an oversupply situation that's roughly twice the magnitude as the (challenging) national average figure (ouch!). The average facility has throughput of 21K rds/yr, considerably below the national average before factoring in climate and daylight influences. The more accurate measure is the market's 38% Utilization Rate which substantially trails the Top 25 US Golf Markets' average (56%). This means that, after factoring in a significantly shorter-than-average season, the market's average golf "factory" runs at lower throughput vs. its Top 25 US Golf Markets peer group. On the annual Golf Fees Revenue productivity side, the market generates roughly $0.6M per public regulation-length EHE which significantly trails the Top 25 Markets average (so they're getting a combination of lower throughput and lower rate). As we move down the waterfall of health metrics, the combination of the lower Utilization and Revenue per EHE combines to produce a lower Revenue per Available Round (RevpAR) result, $11, than the Top 25 Markets benchmark. As a final measure for the Top 25, the Golf Fee Profit-per-Available Round estimate (designed to equalize the equation when comparing high cost-of-living markets to more reasonable ones) is $2, which is well below the national average of $9, so the market also potentially has higher expenses than average to achieve those results. For more detail on what this means and how it's calculated, see Jim's article in the October '14 Perspective edition (or send us an email at jimk@pellucidcorp.com and we'll fill in the blanks). In summary, on the positive side of the ledger the market has strengths in the golfer base relative to supply and a healthy www.PellucidCorp.com concentration of that supply right down the middle of the price range (vs. the premium "glut" we see at the national level and in other major markets still). On the negative (opportunities?) side of the ledger they've got tremendous supply overhang, mirror the national average annual rounds demand decline and lack pricing power it would appear. While we'd like to say that "growing the game" is the path to winning here, more likely winning the shareof-golfer battle is the more appropriate short-term game in town. Some local operators like Walters Golf Management appear to have figured out how to either win or survive in this market (with the above macro market numbers, surviving = winning here), whether or not that can be attributed to their dynamic pricing approach can be debated, so there are benchmarks out there that it can be done. That said, one would need a high appetite for risk, unshakable confidence in one's operational prowess and a little bit of luck to parachute into the St. Louis market as a new entity and succeed via a dramatic turnaround. On the other hand, everything depends on the "buy" metrics and if you could swoop in and get something "on the cheap" (in today's world that's likely <$.25 on the dollar, however one wants to define "the dollar"), there's likely a play because you'd be playing off a completely different P&L than the legacy operators. In summary, it's not a market for the faint of heart. n "Clear Solutions to Golf 's Business Issues" Visit our website and register for more information and free sample reports at www.pellucidcorp.com. Or, contact Jim Koppenhaver to discuss your unique needs at jimk@pellucidcorp.com or 847.808.7651 The Pellucid PersPecTive 15 http://www.pellucidcorp.com http://www.PellucidcorP.com

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - September 2016

An opportune time for equipment creative disruption: Why Wilson Golf could be in Position A
Companies launch pay-per-hole, pay-for-time options
Superintendents key players in courses’ survival
Myrtle Beach market a testimony to cooperation
Golf weather impact: Aug down slightly; July utilization holds
Cardinals not the only ones in the red in St. Louis
Finally, some help for golf ’s time crunch
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2016 - 1
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2016 - An opportune time for equipment creative disruption: Why Wilson Golf could be in Position A
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2016 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2016 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2016 - Companies launch pay-per-hole, pay-for-time options
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2016 - 6
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2016 - Superintendents key players in courses’ survival
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2016 - 8
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2016 - Myrtle Beach market a testimony to cooperation
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2016 - 10
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2016 - Golf weather impact: Aug down slightly; July utilization holds
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2016 - 12
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2016 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2016 - Cardinals not the only ones in the red in St. Louis
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2016 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2016 - Finally, some help for golf ’s time crunch
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202010
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202009
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202008
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202007
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202006
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202005
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202004
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202003
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202002
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202001
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201912
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201911
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201910
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201909
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201908
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201907
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201906
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201905
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201904
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201903
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201902
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201901
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201812
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201811
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201810
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201808
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201807
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201806
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201805
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201804
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201803
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201802
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201801
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201712
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201711
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201710
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201709
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201708
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201707
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201706
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201705
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201704
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201703
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201702
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201701
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201612
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201611
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201610
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201609
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201608
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201606
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201605
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201604
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201603
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201602
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201601
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201512
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201511
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201510
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201509
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201508
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201507
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201506
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201505
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201504
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201503
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201502
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201501
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201412
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201411
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201410
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201409
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201408
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201407
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201406
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201404
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201403
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201402
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201401
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201312
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201311
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201310
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201309
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201308
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201307
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201306
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201305
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201304
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201303
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201302
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201301
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201212
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201211
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201210
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201209
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201208
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201207
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201206
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201205
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201204
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201202
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201112
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201111
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201110
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201109
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201108
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201107
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201106
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201105
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201104
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201103
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201102
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201101
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201012
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201010
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201008
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com