The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - 11


registered a slight decline in Utilization for the month as the significant demand decrease lapped the month's GPH decline. For
the YtD period, at the national level Utilization still looks like a
draw with the slight gain in rounds nearly matching the favorable weather results. Utilization figures for the month at the
National and 61 key Markets (including Pellucid's designated
Top 25 markets) level are also available to Pellucid Publications
members and Geographic Weather Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, "September's results were a
mixed bag resulting in a basic "net nothing" at the national level.
Looking across the 45 region map visualization for the month,
there's no discernible pattern, although the majority of the
heartland and west Great Lakes regions were in the red. GPH
gainers for the month were led by Atlanta and the Kansas/

Rounds by Facility Type Aug 2016
All Fac.
Types

Public
Access

Private

2.0% ___________________________________________
1.3%
0.8%
0.8%
1.0% ___________________________________________

0.0% ___________________________________________
___________________________________________
-1.0%
___________________________________________
-2.0%
___________________________________________
-3.0%
___________________________________________
-4.0%
___________________________________________
-4.5%
-5.0% -4.6%
___________________________________________
-1.1%
-6.0%

Source: GDT/NGCOA/NGF alliance

As we introduced recently, this is a new view which replaces
the former tables on Revenue and Rate (until a PerformanceTrak successor emerges) with a view into Utilization and the
Point Change vs. the Year End '15 value to quantify how rounds
demand is being influenced by favorable/unfavorable weather.
For those relatively new to Pellucid Weather Impact tracking,
the underlying concept is relatively simple. In a perfect world
(i.e. if rounds are linearly correlated to weather), a 5% increase
in Golf Playable Hours (Capacity Rounds) would produce a 5%
gain in actual Rounds Played. By comparing Rounds Played
to Capacity Rounds, we can determine the Utilization of the
average facility and how it's changing across the year vs. some
benchmark (here we use the last full year's rate of 51%).
The first set of bars above show that August posted a Utilization rate of 50%, which represents a 1 pt decline vs. the FY '15
value. In other words, the month's significant drop in Rounds
Played was greater than the Capacity Rounds decline for the
month. That unfortunately breaks our 2-month win streak of
Utilization that was potentially pointing to us having (slightly)
more control over our demand destiny. The second set of bars
show the Year-to-Date (YtD) values which report Utilization of

Oklahoma/Missouri region, which had solid single-digit gains
vs. YA. Among the biggest losers, the Great Lakes was a sea of
red (bad pun) in GPH figures as well as Florida South and East
PA/NY/NJ. Looking back at August Utilization, we took a hit
at the national level which breaks our 3-month winning streak
as the SW was particularly hard hit with rounds losses against
favorable weather. In YtD Utilization performance breadth
across the 61 markets, we're basically playing to a tie with 11
up, 8 down and the majority (42) in the neutral zone. If you
want to know which 8 markets are posting Utilization gains and
how successful they've been against the weather results, you can
get that level of detail information by subscribing to any of the
weather impact services described above. The point is, it can be
done and several markets are showing us how."
n

n Curr Month
n Curr YtD

Looking at rounds demand for golf for the current month, the
demand "comps" are off significantly vs. Year Ago (YA) at -5%,
driven by declines in both sectors. For the Year-to-Date (YtD)
period, the current month decline trimmed the first half gains
and now stands at +1% through eight months, driven by the
Public sector. While we'd like to see more robust rounds growth
overall, the above YtD picture of rounds up and Public "driving the bus" is our preferred situation. Curiously however, it's
hard to understand how Public is up 1.3% and controls 79%
of rounds with Private contributing only 21% and yet the All
Facility Types figure mirrors the 21% component? (Might want
to check either that math or the sample balance).

right on 51%, which is basically flat to the FY '15 value so the
August Utilization decline wasn't so severe to materially hurt us
for the cumulative year. We'll see what October brings as we
move into the "shoulder season" for the northern climates.

Utilization & Point Change Aug 2016
n %Utilization
Curr. Month

n Pt. Chng vs. FY '15
YtD

60.0% _______________________________________ 0.0
50.3%

50.9%

50.0% _______________________________________ -0.2
40.0% _______________________________________ -0.4
-0.4

30.0% _______________________________________ -0.6
20.0% _______________________________________ -0.8
10.0% _______________________________________
-1.0
-1.0
0.0% _______________________________________ -1.2
Source: GDT/NGCOA/NGF alliance; Pellucid

WWW.PELLUCIDCORP.COM

THE PELLUCID PERSPECTIVE

11


http://WWW.PELLUCIDCORP.COM

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016

The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016
Brother, Can You Spare a Time?
Taylormade Sale: Whatever the Outcome, It’s Likely to Be “unique”
Golf Is Aspirational, So Forget the Usual Suspects
Pope of Slope Providing Blessings for Amateur Golfers
Golf Weather Impact: September No Major Surprise; August Utilization Slips
A Few Rays of Sunshine, but Not Enough Buc(k)s
Tiger, Tiger Burning Out?
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - Brother, Can You Spare a Time?
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - Taylormade Sale: Whatever the Outcome, It’s Likely to Be “unique”
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - 6
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - Golf Is Aspirational, So Forget the Usual Suspects
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - Pope of Slope Providing Blessings for Amateur Golfers
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - Golf Weather Impact: September No Major Surprise; August Utilization Slips
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - 12
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - A Few Rays of Sunshine, but Not Enough Buc(k)s
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - 14
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - Tiger, Tiger Burning Out?
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202106
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202105
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202104
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202103
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202102
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202101
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202012
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202010
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202009
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202008
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202007
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202006
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202005
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202004
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202003
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202002
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202001
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201912
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201911
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201910
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201909
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201908
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201907
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201906
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201905
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201904
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201903
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201902
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201901
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201812
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201811
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201810
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201808
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201807
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201806
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201805
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201804
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201803
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201802
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201801
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201712
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201711
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201710
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201709
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201708
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201707
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201706
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201705
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201704
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201703
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201702
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201701
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201612
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201611
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201610
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201609
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201608
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201606
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201605
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201604
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201603
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201602
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201601
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201512
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201511
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201510
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201509
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201508
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201507
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201506
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201505
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201504
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201503
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201502
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201501
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201412
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201411
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201410
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201409
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201408
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201407
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201406
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201404
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201403
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201402
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201401
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201312
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201311
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201310
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201309
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201308
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201307
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201306
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201305
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201304
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201303
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201302
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201301
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201212
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201211
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201210
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201209
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201208
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201207
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201206
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201205
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201204
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201202
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201112
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201111
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201110
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201109
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201108
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201107
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201106
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201105
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201104
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201103
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201102
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201101
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201012
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201010
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201008
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com