The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - 13

MARKET FOCUS

A few Rays of
sunshine, but not
enough Buc(k)s
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater FL
Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA)

n this monthly section we profile one of the Top 25 US Golf
Markets which is based on a Pellucid composite score of the
golfer base, the supply level and rounds demand. Within
that Top 25 universe, we then rank them based on relative health
using a Pellucid weighted scoring system on 8 variables ranging from Population Growth to Estimated Profitability-perAvailable Round. In this issue, we'll profile the 13th healthiest
market, the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater Core Business
Statistical Area (CBSA).
In the land of their beloved devilfish (Rays) and swashbuckling footballers (Buccaneers) a good number of them also make
time for golf during their full 12-month season. As we'll see
in the analysis below, Tampa is one of the homes of affordable
golf but, unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be translating into
world-class utilization or revenue generation which is an interesting case study on the affordability of golf being a key handicap for growth of our sport.
By rounds demand (one of our 3 selection criteria for initial
inclusion in the Top 25 list), the Tampa CBSA ranks number 13
among US markets with facility-reported annual demand of just
over 5M rounds. (That facility-reported tally counts both local
and tourist play). Looking at the golf consumer base, we see that
the Tampa CBSA is home to a relatively modest local golfer base
of roughly 235K golfers (20th ranking in the US, but remember
this is only local, resident population, doesn't count the tourist
crowd). That golfer base is served by an equally modest supply
amount of 141 18-hole equivalents (EHE), producing a healthy
ratio of roughly 1.7K local resident golfers per EHE, very similar
to the national average.
The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's
five access/value/usage segments skews significantly to Private
at 35% of total holes compared to the national average of 27%.
The Private vs. Public access balance is 35%/65%, again out of
balance vs. the national average of 27%/73%. (Remember however that Private isn't always exclusive; in some markets, such
as here, it can also represent moderate-priced, pre-paid golf
facilities). The balance of Value-added golf supply (Private &
Public-Premium) vs. Value golf (Public-Value, Price and Learning & Practice) is 49%/51% which is in line with the 50%/50%
national distribution. Within Public-Regulation golf (which removes the huge Private bias influence), the distribution between
Premium/Value/Price is 25%/47%/29% vs. the national picture
of 34%/42%/24% which shows, outside of the Private skew, that

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Private

PublicPremium

PublicValue

PublicPrice

Learning
& Practice

Tampa-St Pete.Clearwater
CBSA

Golfer Base
- Est. # of Golfers (Ks)
- # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities
- Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv.
Supply Mix
- Private
- Pub-Prem
- Pub-Val
- Pub-Price
- Learn & Prac

Supply/Demand Balance
- '00-'13 Cume Supply Growth/Decline*
- '00-'13 Cume Rds Demand Growth/
Decline*
- '00-'13 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution
(-)/Absorption (+) Level* **
- Avg Ann Rds Velocity (Ks per 18-hole
vs. ks) (EHE)
Rounds & GF Revenue Health
- % Utilization Rate
- Avg. Ann. Rev. per Public
Regulation EHE ($Ks)
- Revenue per Available Round
(RevpAR)

Future
Facility

Tot US

Index
vs. US

235.1 22,900
141 14,672
1,673 1,561

107

35%
14%
26%
16%
8%

27%
23%
28%
16%
6%

130
60
94
102
136

4%
-1%

9%
-12%

43
11

-5%

-21%

33.5

33.8

41%
56%
1,048 $1,155
$13
$19

73
91
68

* Inverse index, lower is better
** Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply

Above average level vs. US (Index >105)
Average level vs. US (Index 95-104)
Below average level vs. US (Index <95)

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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016