The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - 14


MARKET FOCUS

the Public-access, regulation supply skew is towards the affordable golf segments vs. the US benchmark. Remember that, in
this particular analysis, Pellucid allows the definitions of Premium/Value/Price to "float" across each of the markets driven by
the local market price spectrum so the absolute price of golf isn't
necessarily revealed by a balanced distribution. (For reference,
the Public-Value segment is defined as $37-$55 for this market).
During the "go-go" years of supply development (19902000), the Tampa CBSA participated in the "build a course a
day" craze, increasing supply at an annual rate of ~2% (compared
to the (unreasonable) US average of ~2%). Working in their
favor was average annual population growth (between 1-2%,
slightly faster than the national rate of ~1% annually during that
period). Using our pre-2000 calculation for supply dilution/
absorption (supply change vs. population change) we estimate
that the market was ~5% over-supplied at the turn of the century (not bad compared to the US average of 11% overhang).
Since 2000, the annual rate of supply growth has throttled back
to <0.5% while the population growth rate has remained healthy
but not quite as robust as pre-2000. A better available metric
however for supply dilution/absorption in the post-2000 period
(because we have semi-accurate facility-reported rounds figures
at state and market level) is comparing supply growth to the
changes in rounds demand. Since 2000, the market has experienced basically flat annual rounds results (slightly better than
the national average of -1% annually) so we're actually showing
a slight level of supply dilution continuing during the '00-'13
period. Combining the 1990-2000 decade (-5%) and the 20002013 period results (-3%), the average facility in the market has
suffered some combination of rounds or rate decline resulting in
an 8% revenue dilution since 1990. (That's well below the national rate of -33% nationally for that same '90-'13 period). It's

FACT-BASED INFORMATION
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14 THE PELLUCID PERSPECTIVE

becoming a familiar pattern in these Market Profiles, just when
we get the supply growth challenge fixed, we now experience flat
or declining rounds demand to contend with. For all these markets, the remedy is the same; there needs to be either an increase
in rounds demand or a net reduction in supply in the coming
years to return to the pre-2000 levels of economic health.
The average facility has throughput of roughly 34K rds/yr,
right on the national average before factoring in climate and
daylight influences. The more accurate measure is the market's
41% Utilization Rate which is well short of the Top 25 US Golf
Markets' average (56%). This means that, after neutralizing the
benefit of a 12-month season, the market's average golf "factory"
runs at a lower throughput vs. its Top 25 US Golf Markets peer
group. On the annual Golf Fees Revenue productivity side, the
market generates just over $1.0M per public regulation-length
EHE which is slightly below the Top 25 Markets average. After factoring that for weather influence, the market's Greens Fee
Revenue per Available Round (RevpAR = Greens Fee Revenue/
Available (Capacity) Rounds) registers at $13, well below the
Top 25 Markets' average of $19. (Remember however that all the
revenue figures are based on calculations off the highest Weekend Green Fee and don't factor in the mix of weekend/weekday
play or the effect of discounting present in the market so actual
mileage across markets will vary). As a final new measure for
the Top 25, the Golf Fee Profit-per-Available Round estimate
(designed to equalize the equation when comparing high costof-living markets to more reasonable ones) is $5, which is well
below the national average of $9 due to the fact that they're incurring 12 months of maintenance expense with only average
throughput. For more detail on what this means and how that's
calculated, see Jim's article in the October '14 Perspective edition (or send us an email at jimk@pellucidcorp.com and we'll
fill in the blanks). In other words, after weather adjustment and
factoring out maintenance cost differentials, Tampa seems to be
a great place to be a golfer looking for affordable, public-access
recreation but that's not translating into particularly healthy
conditions for most owner/operators.
In summary, the Tampa FL CBSA has positive "comps" in
the golfer base, good population growth , supply growth is in
check and public access golf appears to be very affordable on
the whole. On the other side of the market health ledger, the
market is challenged in generating demand and the throughput
and revenue generation figures aren't necessarily "rewarding" the
abundant, affordable golf environment at the revenue and profit
line. Consumers tell us repeatedly in surveys that affordability
is one of the top 3 barriers to playing or increasing frequency of
play, which would suggest that a market such as Tampa should
be thriving in both participants and demand. As one real-world
data point, perhaps the other elements of time, skill and social
connections are more important than affordability when one
moves from the theoretical survey question response to how
people actually make decisions about their discretionary time
and benefits they're seeking from recreational pursuits. If so, it
wouldn't be the first time that we've seen a disconnect between
"words" and "actions" (for quick reference, see the current politin
cal landscape for a plethora of examples).
OCTOBER 2016


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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016

The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016
Brother, Can You Spare a Time?
Taylormade Sale: Whatever the Outcome, It’s Likely to Be “unique”
Golf Is Aspirational, So Forget the Usual Suspects
Pope of Slope Providing Blessings for Amateur Golfers
Golf Weather Impact: September No Major Surprise; August Utilization Slips
A Few Rays of Sunshine, but Not Enough Buc(k)s
Tiger, Tiger Burning Out?
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - Brother, Can You Spare a Time?
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - Taylormade Sale: Whatever the Outcome, It’s Likely to Be “unique”
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - 6
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - Golf Is Aspirational, So Forget the Usual Suspects
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - Pope of Slope Providing Blessings for Amateur Golfers
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - Golf Weather Impact: September No Major Surprise; August Utilization Slips
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - 12
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - A Few Rays of Sunshine, but Not Enough Buc(k)s
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - 14
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2016 - Tiger, Tiger Burning Out?
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