The Pellucid Perspective - April 2017 - 11

markets) level are also available to Pellucid Publications members and Geographic Weather Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, "March was one of those
months where you have to ask several diagnostic questions to
figure out what exactly happened. When we look at the map,
there's not as much red as one would expect for this sharp a decline. This is due to the fact that we lost considerable Available
Rounds in the shoulder-season markets vs. our 12-month season
markets. The Southeast Coast got hit pretty hard while Florida
was a draw across the state, Texas had a good month, the SW
was level and California saw gains vs. YA. Where we got hammered was comparing against last year's favorable March weather in the northern climes and those regions' results ganged up on
and overcame the full-year market positives. One of the reasons

we track the 10-year average is to provide a perspective on how
much abnormal "comps" are influencing our view. That insight
tells us that March was behind the 10-year average in addition
to significantly trailing last year's inflated value. So, Mother
Nature wasn't kind to us in March but she wasn't grossly unkind to us vs. her long-term behavior. As noted above, the other
slightly alarming factor is the February Utilization which gave
us basically no demand uptick against a 30%+ gain in Available
Rounds. This suggests that either our calculation or Datatech's
was seriously flawed for the month or a disconnect has occurred
between these two values, which have tracked pretty consistently
(in both direction and general magnitude) for the past 3+ years.
We'll have to wait for the March rounds figures to see if it's a
blip or a (new) problem."
n

Rounds by Facility Type Feb 2017
All Fac.
Types

Public
Access

Private

5.0% ___________________________________________
4.5%
4.5% ___________________________________________
4.0% ___________________________________________
3.5% ___________________________________________
3.0% ___________________________________________
2.6%
2.5% ___________________________________________
2.0%
2.0%
2.0% ___________________________________________
1.5% ___________________________________________
1.0% ___________________________________________
0.5%
0.0%

n Curr Month
n Curr YtD

Looking at demand for the current month, rounds were basically
flat, posting a 1% increase vs. Year Ago (YA) driven by higher
gains in the Private sector. For the Year-to-Date (YtD) period,
we see more favorability behind February's gains at +3%, driven
again by the Private sector. As we'll see below in Utilization, we
aren't matching weather favorability but it's in the "plus" column
through two months and we'll take it.

0.6%

0.2%
Source: GDT/NGCOA/NGF alliance

Utilization provides the weather adjustment to rounds demand.
For reference, Utilization and Point Change vs. Year Ago (YA)
tracks rounds demand after factoring for weather. The comparative benchmark is the Year End (YE) '16 value (52%). For
those not familiar with Pellucid's Weather Impact tracking, the
underlying concept is relatively simple. In a theoretical world
of rounds following weather, a 5% increase in Available Rounds
would produce a 5% gain in Played Rounds. By comparing
Played Rounds to Available Rounds, we can determine the Utilization of the average facility and how it's changing during the
year vs. the benchmark.
The first set of bars above show that February posted a Utilization rate of ~39% which was a 12 point decline vs. the YE '16
value (but understanding that Pellucid's weather model doesn't
open and close courses on a daily basis when there's a short burst
of good weather so we see this happening occasionally in the offseason if we get unseasonably warm weather pockets). In other
words, the month's 1% gain in Played Rounds fell far short of the
30%+ gain for Available Rounds. The second set of bars show
similar results as the Year-to-Date (YtD) Utilization stands at
42% or an 11 point decline vs. the benchmark. As noted above,
www.PellucidCorp.com

this is not a fatal result in the shoulder season months so we'll
remain calm until we get into April and see if the two measures
come back into alignment.

Utilization & Point Change Feb 2017
n %Utilization
Curr. Month

n Pt. Chng vs. FY '15
YtD

-10.6
45.0% ______________________________________
41.5%
39.4%
______________________________________
-10.8
40.0%
35.0% ______________________________________ -11.0
30.0% ______________________________________ -11.2
-11.2
25.0% ______________________________________ -11.4
20.0% ______________________________________ -11.6
15.0% ______________________________________ -11.8
10.0% ______________________________________ -12.0
-12.2
5.0% ______________________________________
-12.2
______________________________________
-12.4
0.0%
Source: GDT/NGCOA/NGF alliance; Pellucid

The Pellucid PersPecTive

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