The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - 11

and its devastating impact on the South Texas area headlined not
only the weather news but also the national news in general. The
impact of the storm and its collateral damage will be felt by both
the local economy and the golf economy for months to come.
Our thoughts and prayers are with those in the impacted areas
as well as the first responders and countless volunteers and we
trust that people will give generously to their aid relief organization of choice to help them rebuild. Looking beyond Harvey at
the national level for August, we actually had favorability which
was fairly widespread, highlighted by unusual double-digit gains
in GPH for key regions Florida North, Ohio Valley Central and
Southeast Coastal North (unusual because we don't often see
double-digit swings in the core season months). In compiling the
August weather numbers I was reminded that, for most of the
country, "peak weather" is now behind us as the days shorten and

Rounds by Facility Type Jul 2017
All Fac.
Types

Public
Access

Private

3.0% ___________________________________________
2.0%
2.0% ___________________________________________
0.7%
1.0% ___________________________________________
___________________________________________
0.0%

-1.0% ___________________________________________
-1.6%
-2.0% ___________________________________________
-2.1%

-3.0% ___________________________________________
-3.3%
-4.0% ___________________________________________
-4.2%

-5.0% ___________________________________________
Source: GDT/NGCOA/NGF alliance

For reference, Utilization and Point Change vs. Year Ago (YA)
tracks rounds demand after factoring for weather. The comparative benchmark is the Year End (YE) '16 value (52%). For
those not familiar with Pellucid's Weather Impact tracking, the
underlying concept is relatively simple. In a theoretical world
of rounds following weather, a 5% increase in Available Rounds
would produce a 5% gain in Played Rounds. By comparing
Played Rounds to Available Rounds, we can determine the Utilization of the average facility and how it's changing during the
year vs. the benchmark.
The first set of bars above show that June posted a Utilization
rate of ~49% which was a 2 point decline vs. the YE '16 value
(got the "weather up, rounds down" whammy in July). The second set of bars show the Year-to-Date (YtD) results with Utilization continuing to clock in at 50%, which is also a 2 point
deficit vs. the benchmark (so it didn't get meaningfully worse).
So, the net of the monthly ups-and-downs through July says that
sagging rounds demand isn't a result of weather which has been
basically neutral to last year. This would point us to a consumer
challenge either in the size of our base or our inability in marketwww.PellucidCorp.com

in September we'll start losing available hours as the temperatures
in the far northern reaches begin to drop for the Fall. There's still
plenty of golf to be played, it's just we'll be playing it in a narrowing weather window as we do each year (and fighting football
season which is already upon us). At the market level, we continue
to largely track to weather with 37 of 61 markets registering neutral Utilization but, of the non-neutral markets there continue to
be more "trailers" than "leaders". The rounds/weather correlation
however gives us continued confidence that facilities in over half
the markets could use the full year forecast as a proxy for demand
over the balance of the year. Among Pellucid's Top 25 US Golf
Markets for the YtD period, in the positive Utilization column
Dallas (#10) and Atlanta (#19) continue to lead while Minneapolis (#22) continues to lead the Utilization laggards behind a
double-digit improvement in weather but declining rounds." n

n Curr Month
n Curr YtD

Looking at demand for the current month, rounds were off 2%
vs. Year Ago (YA), again driven by a decline in the Public sector
of 2% this month. For the Year-to-Date (YtD) period, the July
decline actually didn't hurt our cause because it was a smaller loss
than the previous YtD amount so the deficit actually improved
slightly, but remains in negative territory at -3%. The YtD decline
is now exclusive to the Public sector which is off 4%, while the
Private sector strengthened yet again in July to push it solidly
above the '16 mark for the YtD period at +2%. (Not sure how we
get that big a jump in one month with six behind us but hey, we'll
go with it, anything in the positive direction is welcome news
even if it's not completely mathematically sound).

ing to entice them out onto the course in either greater numbers
or frequency in the face of pretty average (both vs. last year and
the 10-year Norm) weather...

Utilization & Point Change Jul 2017
n %Utilization
Curr. Month

n Pt. Chng vs. FY '16
YtD

60.0% ______________________________________ -1.8
49.6%
49.2%
50.0% ______________________________________ -1.0
-2.0
40.0% ______________________________________
-2.0
-2.1
30.0% ______________________________________
-2.2
20.0% ______________________________________ -2.3

10.0% ______________________________________ -2.4
-2.4
0.0% ______________________________________ -2.5
Source: GDT/NGCOA/NGF alliance; Pellucid

The Pellucid PersPecTive

11


http://www.PellucidcorP.com

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017

TOC
Is TopGolf going to save us?
Golf Tours and Solutions ups the ante in Myrtle Beach
Municipal golf remains in the crosshairs: From Tucson AZ to Buffalo Grove IL
NGCOA hosts first industry Technology conference in 20 years
August golf weather impact: 2nd consecutive month of positive “comps”!
Barring hurricanes, Miami golf market in decent shape
Faster carts not the answer to golf’s problems
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - Is TopGolf going to save us?
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - Golf Tours and Solutions ups the ante in Myrtle Beach
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - Municipal golf remains in the crosshairs: From Tucson AZ to Buffalo Grove IL
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - 8
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - NGCOA hosts first industry Technology conference in 20 years
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - August golf weather impact: 2nd consecutive month of positive “comps”!
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - 12
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - Barring hurricanes, Miami golf market in decent shape
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - 14
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - Faster carts not the answer to golf’s problems
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