The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - 13

MARKET FOCUS

Barring hurricanes, Miami golf market in decent shape
Miami FL Core Business Statistical
Area (CBSA)

I

n this monthly section we profile one of the Top 25 US Golf
Markets which is based on a Pellucid composite score of the
golfer base, the supply level and rounds demand. Within
that Top 25 universe, we then rank them based on relative health
using a Pellucid weighted scoring system on 8 variables ranging
from Population Growth to Estimated Profitability-per-Available Round. In this issue, we'll profile the 14th healthiest market, the Miami Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA).
With the recent Hurricane Irma that just blew across the
state of FL chewing up structures, land and golf courses alike,
the map at right probably doesn't reflect "open" golf courses right
now. Our thoughts, prayers and funds (through relief organizations which we support like UMCOR who are on the ground
whenever and wherever the need strikes) go out to the residents
of South FL and the Miami market. In the aftermath of the
storm there will be rebuilding and we're sure a significant impact
on rounds for the month, but they're fortunate that they have a
12-month season to recoup some of the loss and hopefully all
the courses will be back in shape for the upcoming peak-season
(also referred to as "winter" by us northerners).
By rounds demand (one of our 3 selection criteria for initial
inclusion in the Top 25 list), the Miami CBSA ranks number
6 among US markets with facility-reported annual demand of
just over 7M rounds. (That facility-reported tally counts both
full-year resident, snowbird and tourist play). Looking at the
golf consumer base, we see that the Miami CBSA is home to a
relatively modest local golfer base of roughly 481K golfers (7th
ranking in the US, remember this is only local, resident population, doesn't count the tourist crowd). That golfer base is served
by a healthy supply amount of 232 18-hole equivalents (EHE),
producing a healthy ratio of roughly 2.1K local resident golfers
per EHE, well above the national average.
The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's
five access/value/usage segments skews significantly to Private
at 52% of total holes compared to the national average of 27%.
The Private vs. Public access balance is 52%/48%, again out of
balance vs. the national average of 27%/73% (not much PublicPremium to speak of, the overabundance of Private sucks most
of the higher end "oxygen" out of the market). The balance of
Value-added golf supply (Private & Public-Premium) vs. Value
golf (Public-Value, Price and Learning & Practice) is 73%/27%
which is also out of line vs. the 50%/50% national distribution.
Within Public-Regulation golf (which removes the huge Private bias influence), the distribution between Premium/Value/
Price is 27%/52%/22% vs. the national picture of 34%/42%/24%
which shows, outside of the Private skew, that the Public-access,
regulation supply skew is towards the affordable golf segments
vs. the US benchmark. Remember that in this particular analysis
Pellucid allows the definitions of Premium/Value/Price to "float"

www.PellucidCorp.com

Private

PublicPremium

PublicValue

PublicPrice

Golfer Base
- Est. # of Golfers (Ks)
- # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities
- Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv.

Learning
& Practice

Miami, FL
CBSA

Supply Mix
- Private
- Pub-Prem
- Pub-Val
- Pub-Price
- Learn & Prac

Tot US

Index
vs. US

480.7 22,900
232 14,672
2,076 1,561

133

52%
11%
21%
9%
6%

27%
23%
28%
16%
6%

194
48
76
57
104

4%
-14%

9%
-12%

43
122

-18%

-21%

88

29.7

33.8

88

38%
56%
$1,611 $1,155
$21
$19

68
139
111

Supply/Demand Balance
- '00-'13 Cume Supply Growth/Decline*
- '00-'13 Cume Rds Demand Growth/
Decline*
- '00-'13 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution
(-)/Absorption (+) Level* **
- Avg Ann Rds Velocity (Ks per 18-hole
vs. ks) (EHE)
Rounds & GF Revenue Health
- % Utilization Rate
- Avg. Ann. Rev. per Public
Regulation EHE ($Ks)
- Revenue per Available Round
(RevpAR)

Future
Facility

* Inverse index, lower is better
** Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply

Above average level vs. US (Index >105)
Average level vs. US (Index 95-104)
Below average level vs. US (Index <95)

The Pellucid PersPecTive

13


http://www.PellucidcorP.com

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017

TOC
Is TopGolf going to save us?
Golf Tours and Solutions ups the ante in Myrtle Beach
Municipal golf remains in the crosshairs: From Tucson AZ to Buffalo Grove IL
NGCOA hosts first industry Technology conference in 20 years
August golf weather impact: 2nd consecutive month of positive “comps”!
Barring hurricanes, Miami golf market in decent shape
Faster carts not the answer to golf’s problems
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - Is TopGolf going to save us?
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - Golf Tours and Solutions ups the ante in Myrtle Beach
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - Municipal golf remains in the crosshairs: From Tucson AZ to Buffalo Grove IL
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - 8
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - NGCOA hosts first industry Technology conference in 20 years
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - August golf weather impact: 2nd consecutive month of positive “comps”!
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - 12
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - Barring hurricanes, Miami golf market in decent shape
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - 14
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2017 - Faster carts not the answer to golf’s problems
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