The Pellucid Perspective - October 2017 - 13

Golf Playable Hours Monthy % Chng vs. Year Ago
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
40% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
32%

31%
30% ________________________________________________________________________________________________

20% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
8%
10% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
3%
2%

2%

2%

0%
0% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
-1%

-4%
-5%
-10% ________________________________________________________________________________________________

-20% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
-20%

-30% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
Source: Golf Datatech

For some reason (unbeknownst to us), the PGA of America and Golf Datatech have ended their agreement to publish the bychannel equipment figures for dollar sales and units effective with the September PGA Magazine. As a result, we can no longer
provide our extrapolations of the health of the equipment sector so we're switching to the above and below new views. In the
above, we've now created a monthly and quarterly timeseries view of weather impact (measured by Golf Playable Hours) so our
readers can see how the year is playing out at the national level. (Again, if you want the 45 regional figures, the 61 markets figures
or specific to your individual facility, you can get those by subscribing either to the Pellucid Publications Membership program, the
Geographical Weather Impact reports or Cognilogic (individual facility down to daily level) at the Pellucid website, Click Here).
The above chart shows us that weather at the national level was flat (to tenths of a percentage point, that's pretty amazing) vs.
the '16 value. You can see that this is the 3rd consecutive month of non-negative weather results and cumulated in the 3rd quarter
being marginally (+2%) better than last year's mark. Couple that with the marginal decline in Q2 (-1%, right hand set of bars),
we basically came through the peak season nationally with similar weather performance. (Again, at national level, your regional
and local market mileage will vary). So whatever we got in rounds demand, plus or minus, is due to the golf operations, marketing
programs and pricing strategies.

Golf Playable Hours Monthly Utilization Point Chng vs. Prior Full Year
8
6
4
2
-
(2)
(4)
(6)
(8)
(10)
(12)
(14)

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
________________________________________________________________________________________________
6
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
(1)
(1)
(2)
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
(5)
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
(10)
________________________________________________________________________________________________
(12)
________________________________________________________________________________________________
Source: Golf Datatech

The above chart represents a timeseries by month of Utilization change which we're all sure that by now you know is the resultant
of Played Rounds (demand) divided by Available Rounds (capacity). We compare each month back to the static prior Year End
figure to determine if we improved or lost utilization in the current month.
As Stuart Lindsay has highlighted in the previous State of the Industry, rounds demand for the past several years has been tracking relatively closely, at the national level, to variations in capacity rounds.(In simple English, demand has been following weather).
The big variations occurred in Q1 where rounds didn't follow very favorable Jan-Feb Golf Playable Hours (GPH) but, once we got
into the heart of the season at the national level (May), you'll see that the pattern has continued. The other stubbornly persistent
pattern is that it's a rare occasion when we're able to drive rounds demands in excess of what Mother Nature gave us (see March but
that was a situation of poor weather, not as poor demand "comps"). Part of this is likely attributable to the challenges of Pellucid
creating a national, rules-based, automated method of determining GPH but, even in light of that, we have had a fundamental
industry issue of not being able to drive rounds meaningfully independent of weather variance.
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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - October 2017
