The Pellucid Perspective - November 2017 - 10

INDUSTRY
SCORECARD

National and 61 key Markets (including Pellucid's designated
Top 25 markets) level are also available to Pellucid Publications
members and Geographic Weather Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, "October was pretty discouraging across a wide swath of the US with Florida, the Great
Lakes, Texas and the inland SE all taking significant hits. The
SE Coast continues to be a weather bright spot for the year
and October was relatively benign for them, protecting previous solid gains. At the market level for Utilization for the
month, we saw some significant swings including San Francisco (rounds decline 11% against 4% weather favorability?),

Rounds by Facility Type Sep 2017
All Fac.
Types

Public
Access

Private

3.0% ___________________________________________
2.2%
2.1%
2.0% ___________________________________________
1.5%

1.0%

1.0% ___________________________________________
0.0% ___________________________________________
-1.0% ___________________________________________
-2.0% ___________________________________________
-2.0%

-3.0% ___________________________________________
-2.8%
___________________________________________
-4.0%

and Cincinnati (35% gain in rounds against flat weather, wow!).
For the YtD Utilization, we continue to largely track to weather
with 39 of 61 markets registering neutral Utilization but, of
the non-neutral markets there continue to be more "laggards"
than "leaders."Among Pellucid's Top 25 US Golf Markets for
the YtD period, in the positive Utilization column only Miami
(#14) is posting a 2 points or greater gain as they're holding
rounds (even after Irma's visit) against significantly unfavorable
weather while Minneapolis (#22) continues its reign as the largest laggard with the double-whammy of rounds down against
n
favorable weather."

n Curr Month
n Curr YtD

Looking at demand for the current month, rounds were up 2%
vs. Year Ago (YA) for our 2nd consecutive "up" month. Different
from last month, September's gain was driven by a 2% gain in
Public facilities which is an encouraging sign. For the Year-toDate (YtD) period, the slight Aug-Sep gains nudged this figure
up slightly from -3% previously to -2% now. The YtD decline
continues to be exclusive to the Public sector which is off 3%
while the Private sector remains marginally up at +1%. The yearend picture is now coming into focus and the likely story will be
"rounds down marginally, but within our neutral zone of +/-2%."

Source: GDT/NGCOA/NGF alliance

For reference, Utilization and Point Change vs. Year Ago (YA)
tracks rounds demand after factoring for weather. The comparative benchmark is the Year End (YE) '16 value of 52%. For
those not familiar with Pellucid's Weather Impact tracking, the
underlying concept is relatively simple. In a theoretical world
of rounds following weather, a 5% increase in Available Rounds
would produce a 5% gain in Played Rounds. By comparing
Played Rounds to Available Rounds, we can determine the Utilization of the average facility and how it's changing during the
year vs. the benchmark.
The first set of bars to the right show that September posted
a Utilization rate of ~53% which was 1 point better than the
YE '16 value (got the "rounds up slightly, weather flat" scenario
in September). The second set of bars show the Year-to-Date
(YtD) results with Utilization continuing to clock in at 50%
which is a 1 point deficit vs. the benchmark (so month's gain
wasn't enough to move the full year). Contrary to a recent Q3
analyst earnings report on Acushnet that pegged ball sales headwinds to weather, the weather through 3 quarters hasn't materially helped or hindered rounds demand or consumables using
our math and from our perspective.

10 The Pellucid PersPecTive

Utilization & Point Change Sep 2017
n %Utilization
Curr. Month

n Pt. Chng vs. FY '16
YtD

- 1.5
60.0% ______________________________________
1.3
52.9%
50.4%
______________________________________
- 1.0
50.0%
______________________________________
- 0.5
40.0%
30.0% ______________________________________- 0.0
20.0% ______________________________________- -0.5
10.0% ______________________________________- -1.0
-1.2
0.0% ______________________________________- -1.5
Source: GDT/NGCOA/NGF alliance; Pellucid

November 2017

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