The Pellucid Perspective - February 2018 - 11

and the West Coast all registered weather gains. Looking back
to the December results for YtD Utilization at the 61 markets
level, we finished with the majority of markets (38 of 61) in
the neutral zone (rounds followed weather) but market breadth
among the non-neutrals finished negative with 13 markets declining in Utilization against 10 gainers. Among Pellucid's Top
25 US Golf Markets for the YtD period, Miami (#14) did finish

Rounds by Facility Type Dec 2017
All Fac.
Types

Public
Access

Private

8.0% ___________________________________________
7.2%
6.0% ___________________________________________
4.1%

4.0% ___________________________________________
3.0%

2.0% ___________________________________________
0.8%

0.0% ___________________________________________
-2.0% ___________________________________________
-2.7%

-4.0% ___________________________________________
-3.6%
-6.0% ___________________________________________
Source: GDT/NGCOA/NGF alliance

For reference, Utilization and Point Change vs. Year Ago (YA)
tracks rounds demand after factoring for weather. The comparative benchmark is the Year End (YE) '16 value of 52%. For
those not familiar with Pellucid's Weather Impact tracking, the
underlying concept is relatively simple. In a theoretical world
of rounds following weather, a 5% increase in Available Rounds
would produce a 5% gain in Played Rounds. By comparing
Played Rounds to Available Rounds, we can determine the Utilization of the average facility and how it's changing during the
year vs. the benchmark.
The first set of bars above show that December posted a Utilization rate of ~50% which was 2 points worse than the YE
'16 value (this month we got the "rounds up but not as much
as weather scenario). The second set of bars show the Year-toDate (YtD) results with Utilization holding steady and finishing the year at 51%, or a 1 point deficit vs. the '16 benchmark.
Once again, rounds follows weather and we continue to be in
the farming business as an industry during the current cycle.

www.PellucidCorp.com

as the year's Utilization gain leader (> 3 point gain) while Minneapolis (#22) earned the crown for the largest laggard but San
Francisco (#4) made a late surge and lost 4 points of Utilization
as well to finish in close 2nd. Both markets experienced rounds
losses of >5% against basically flat weather en route to their
Utilization declines."
n

n Curr Month
n Curr YtD

Looking at demand for December, rounds were up 4% vs. Year
Ago (YA), breaking a 2-month losing streak. December's gain
was predominately powered by the Private sector's 7% gain but
Public also contributed on the positive side, registering a healthy
3% increase. For the Year-to-Date (YtD) period, the December
gain couldn't make a dent in the previous 11-month headwind as
rounds finished the year at -3%. The YtD decline finished as a
Public sector disappointment of -4% while the Private sector held
its own for the year but couldn't muster enough strength to offset
any of the Public decline. So we end up with a "rounds down"
result which will inevitably lead to the "poorer weather" claim but
we'll see in the following graph that weather wasn't exclusively
the reason.

Utilization & Point Change Dec 2017
n %Utilization
Curr. Month

n Pt. Chng vs. FY '16
YtD

60.0% ______________________________________- 0.0
49.6%

51.0%

50.0% ______________________________________- -0.5
40.0% ______________________________________
- -1.0
______________________________________
30.0%
- -1.5
20.0% ______________________________________
-0.6

- -2.0
10.0% ______________________________________
-2.0
0.0% ______________________________________- -2.5
Source: GDT/NGCOA/NGF alliance; Pellucid

The Pellucid PersPecTive

11


http://www.PellucidcorP.com

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - February 2018

TOC
Is TopGolf going to save us II? Virtual golf becoming a reality
Can you spell API?
January golf weather impact: Brutal, Dude!
Chicago operators still need broad shoulders...and better marketing
Technically speaking, it’s show time
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2018 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2018 - Is TopGolf going to save us II? Virtual golf becoming a reality
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2018 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2018 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2018 - 5
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2018 - Can you spell API?
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2018 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2018 - 8
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2018 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2018 - January golf weather impact: Brutal, Dude!
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2018 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2018 - 12
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2018 - Chicago operators still need broad shoulders...and better marketing
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2018 - 14
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2018 - Technically speaking, it’s show time
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