The Pellucid Perspective - July 2018 - 11

um compared to the US average. The Private vs. Public access balance is 28%/72% which is right in line with the national
average of 27%/73%. The balance of Value-added (Private &
Public-Premium) vs. Value (Public-Value, Price and Learning & Practice) golf supply is 53%/47% which skews modestly
to Value-added golf vs. the 50%/50% national distribution.
Within Public-Regulation golf, the distribution between Premium/Value/Price is 36%/45%/19% vs. the national picture of
34%/42%/24% which again shows a slight skew to the PublicPremium segment. Remember that in this particular analysis Pellucid allows the definitions of Premium/Value/Price to
"float" across each of the markets driven
by the local market price spectrum so
the absolute price of golf isn't necessarily revealed by a balanced distribution
(i.e. Value golf could run the range of
$35-$70 depending on the local costof-living variances).
During the "go-go" years of supply
development (1990-2000), Pittsburgh
slightly lagged the nation's "build a
course a day" craze increasing supply
at an annual rate of ~1.5% (compared
to the (unreasonable) US average of
>2%). In tandem to this, annual population growth was minimal (0% vs. the
national average of ~1%). Using our
pre-2000 calculation for supply dilution/absorption (supply change vs.
population change) we estimate that
the market was at ~15% dilution at the
turn of the century vs. the 1990 benchmark (vs. the US average of 11% "overhang"). Since 2000, the annual rate of
supply growth has throttled back significantly (<0.4%) while the population
growth rate has deteriorated slightly
into marginal negative territory. A better available metric however for supply
dilution/absorption in the post-2000
period (because we have semi-accurate
facility-reported rounds figures at state
and market level) is comparing supply growth to the changes in rounds
demand. Since 2000, the market has
experienced a marginal decline in the
annual rounds demand rate (<0.5% not
as much as the national average of -1%
annually) which yields increased supply dilution of ~9% during the '00-'13
period. Combining the '90-'00 decade
dilution rate and the '00-'13 period results, the average facility in the market
is ~24% worse off than they were at the
'90 benchmark (slightly better than the
national supply dilution of 27% for that
www.PellucidCorp.com

same '90-'13 period). So, relative to the national picture and
other markets we've studied in the Top 25, Pittsburgh is fighting supply dilution but they're not in quite as big a hole when
compared to the national average.
The average facility has throughput of 26K rds/yr, slightly
below the national average before factoring in climate and daylight influences (but not bad given its latitude and climate zone).
The more accurate measure is the market's 47% Utilization Rate
which meaningfully trails the Top 25 US Golf Markets' average (56%). This means that, after factoring in a significantly
shorter-than-average season, the market's average golf "factory"

The Pellucid PersPecTive

11


https://www.kempersports.com http://www.PellucidcorP.com

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - July 2018

TOC
Golf course resurrection: Go big or go home in Salt Lake City UT
We’re missing the boat on Match Play
Golf’s landscape changes
June golf weather impact: Winning streak stops at 1
Pittsburgh, steely in its resolve to climb the top 25
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2018 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2018 - Golf course resurrection: Go big or go home in Salt Lake City UT
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2018 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2018 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2018 - We’re missing the boat on Match Play
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2018 - Golf’s landscape changes
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2018 - June golf weather impact: Winning streak stops at 1
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2018 - 8
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2018 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2018 - Pittsburgh, steely in its resolve to climb the top 25
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2018 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2018 - 12
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