The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - 12

INDUSTRY
SCORECARD

among the 61 key Markets (including Pellucid's designated Top
25 markets) and this next-level-detail of results is also available
to Pellucid Publications members and Geographic Weather
Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, "In July we generally see moderation in the year-to-year comparisons at the national level as
rainfall and heat variances don't seem to be as significant and/or
they cancel themselves out across the country when aggregating
to the US level. That's why the more detailed regional, state and
markets information becomes more important over the summer
to see where the individual "winners and losers" are.
We did see several of our weather regions post double-digit
gains in GPH (TX Central, Gulf Coast, FL South for example) while others posted inverse double-digit declines (Desert
SW, No. VA etc.). For the YtD period, there are still very few

Rounds by Facility Type Jun 2018
All Fac.
Types

Public
Access

Private

0.0% ___________________________________________
-5.0% ___________________________________________
-1.0% ___________________________________________
-1.1%
-1.2%
-1.5% ___________________________________________
-1.8%
-2.0% ___________________________________________
-2.5% ___________________________________________
-3.0% ___________________________________________
-3.2%
-3.5% ___________________________________________
-3.3%
-3.7%
-4.0% ___________________________________________

Source: GDT/NGCOA/NGF alliance

For reference, Utilization and Point Change vs. Year Ago (YA)
tracks rounds demand after factoring for weather. The comparative benchmark is the Year End (YE) '17 value of 52%. For
those not familiar with Pellucid's Weather Impact tracking, the
underlying concept is relatively simple. In a theoretical world
where rounds follow weather, a 5% increase in Available Rounds
would produce a 5% gain in Played Rounds. By comparing
Played Rounds to Available Rounds, we can determine the Utilization of the average facility and how it's changing during the
year vs. the benchmark.
The first set of bars above show that June posted a Utilization
Rate (UR) of ~51% which is a marginal decline vs. the YE '17
value (rounds basically followed weather). The second set of bars
show the Year-to-Date (YtD) results which registered 55% or +3
points, down slightly from the June reading of 57% but still in
positive territory. In simple terms, at the national level the industry thus far has been able to slightly offset the unfavorable weather "comps" by producing demand that is down, but at a shallower
decline than the GPH drop. We'd call this "winning ugly" but it's
instructive to be able to say that we can quantify and support with
facts that the demand decline through July is due to weather and
we're slightly beating what Mother Nature has offered.

12 The Pellucid PersPecTive

green arrows on our weather map with most of those residing
west-of-the-Rockies. Looking at June YtD results for Utilization at the 61 markets level, we continue the pattern of favorable breadth to gainers as rounds declines are shallower than
weather unfavorability. The market breadth indicator improved
slightly to 11:1 (33 markets showing Utilization gains against
3 markets showing declines with the remaining 25 occupying
the neutral zone). Among Pellucid's Top 25 US Golf Markets
for the YtD period, 17 continue to show Utilization gains with
Denver and Detroit leading the pack with near double-digit
point gains. Again, if you want to know which of our Top 25
Golf Markets posted Utilization gains, how much and what the
dynamics are behind those gains, just go to our website and get
on the Monthly Weather Impact subscription or sign up for
Cognilogic (facility-level access via the web).." Click here. n

n Curr Month
n Curr YtD

Looking at demand for June, rounds were off 1% vs. Year Ago
(YA), not meaningfully different than our previous call on June
weather (up marginally). June's drop was primarily driven by the
Private sector but Public also contributed to the decline. For
the Year-to-Date (YtD) period, the marginal June decline didn't
materially affect the All Facility rounds performance which now
rests at -3% and which is relatively balanced between the Public
and Private sectors. That's half the story, let's look at the more
insightful and accurate picture of our performance as measured
by weather-adjusted Utilization.

Utilization & Point Change Jun 2018
n %Utilization
Curr. Month

n Pt. Chng vs. FY '17
YtD

60.0% ______________________________________-

3.5

50.6%
50.0% ______________________________________
-

3.0

40.0% ______________________________________
30.0% ______________________________________-

2.0

______________________________________
20.0%
-

0.5

54.8%

3.2

2.5
1.5
1.0
0.0

- -0.5
10.0% ______________________________________
- -1.0
-1.0
0.0% ______________________________________- -1.5
Source: GDT/NGCOA/NGF alliance; Pellucid

August 2018


https://www.pellucidcorp.com/reports

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018

TOC
Real estate golf supply contraction: Someone’s gotta’ pay
Municipal golf: What’s in a number?
We can do better at welcoming new golfers
Golf - easy to be hard?
July golf weather impact: Solidly sideways
MN operators doing well against tough odds
Back surgery recovery is Tiger’s greatest achievement
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - Real estate golf supply contraction: Someone’s gotta’ pay
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - Municipal golf: What’s in a number?
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - 6
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - We can do better at welcoming new golfers
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - Golf - easy to be hard?
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - July golf weather impact: Solidly sideways
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - 12
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - MN operators doing well against tough odds
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - 16
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - Back surgery recovery is Tiger’s greatest achievement
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