The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - 15

served by a reasonable supply amount of 191 18-hole equivalents
(EHE), producing a healthy ratio of roughly 2.3K local resident
golfers per EHE, well above the national average.
The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's
five access/value/usage segments is fairly well-balanced compared to the US average. The Private vs. Public access balance is
20%/80%, which skews heavily to Public access vs. the national
average of 27%/73%. The balance of Value-added golf supply (Private & Public-Premium) vs. Value golf (Public-Value,
Price and Learning & Practice) is 47%/53% which tilts slightly
to Value golf vs. the 50%/50% national distribution. Within
Public-Regulation golf, the distribution between Premium/Value/Price is
39%/44%/17% vs. the national picture
of 34%/42%/24% which shows that the
Public-access regulation supply skews
slightly to the Premium side (39% local
vs. 34% nationally). Remember that in
this particular analysis Pellucid allows
the definitions of Premium/Value/Price
to "float" across each of the markets
driven by the local market price spectrum so the absolute price of golf isn't
necessarily revealed by a balanced distribution (i.e. Value golf could run the
range of $35-$70 depending on the local cost-of-living variances).
During the "go-go" years of supply
development (1990-2000), Minneapolis was slightly ahead of the "build a
course a day" curve, increasing supply
at an annual rate of ~3% (compared to
the (unreasonable) US average of >2%).
Working to offset this was above average annual population growth (2% vs.
the national average of ~1%). Using
our pre-2000 calculation for supply
dilution/absorption (supply change vs.
population change) we estimate that
the market was at ~16% dilution at the
turn of the century vs. the 1990 benchmark (vs. the US average of 11% "overhang"). Since 2000, the annual rate of
supply growth has throttled back significantly (<1%) while the population
growth rate has contracted marginally
(now closer to 1% annual). A better
available metric however for supply
dilution/absorption in the post-2000
period (because we have semi-accurate
facility-reported rounds figures at state
and market level) is comparing supply growth to the changes in rounds
demand. Since 2000, the market has
experienced a meaningful decline in
the annual rounds demand rate (~2%
www.PellucidCorp.com

almost double the national average of -1% annually), so we're
actually showing increased supply dilution of ~34% (wow!) during the '00-'13 period. Combining the '90-'00 decade dilution
rate and the '00-'13 period results, the average facility in the
market is ~50% worse off (double wow!) than they were at the
'90 benchmark (or higher supply dilution vs. the national rate
of 33% for that same '90-'13 period). Given that current "reality," the market has a considerable uphill battle to return to
1990s health but, as we'll see in the analysis below, it's far from
doomsday in Minneapolis today.
The average facility has throughput of roughly 28K rds/yr,

The Pellucid PersPecTive

15


https://www.kempersports.com http://www.PellucidcorP.com

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018

TOC
Real estate golf supply contraction: Someone’s gotta’ pay
Municipal golf: What’s in a number?
We can do better at welcoming new golfers
Golf - easy to be hard?
July golf weather impact: Solidly sideways
MN operators doing well against tough odds
Back surgery recovery is Tiger’s greatest achievement
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - Real estate golf supply contraction: Someone’s gotta’ pay
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - Municipal golf: What’s in a number?
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - 6
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - We can do better at welcoming new golfers
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - Golf - easy to be hard?
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - July golf weather impact: Solidly sideways
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - 12
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - MN operators doing well against tough odds
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - 16
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - Back surgery recovery is Tiger’s greatest achievement
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