The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - 10

WEATHER
IMPACT

APRIL

Significantly Beat a
Low "Comp"

A

pril's results, on the surface, were a significant "beat" as
Golf Playable Hours (GPH) improved 19% compared
to the same month last year. That padded our gain for
the Year-to-Date (YtD) period which is now +9%. YtD regional GPH breadth strengthened to 1:1 with 23 favorable regions
countered by 17 unfavorable regions (with 5 in the neutral zone
of +/- 2% with all 45 regions now "in season" based on Pellucid's
weather-based rules). Looking at weather impact performance
by day-of-week for the YtD period, both weekparts (weekday vs.
weekend) were up but with negative and neutral variances when
broken down to the individual days (Fridays stand out as weathernegative YtD). Once again, the Year-End (YE) forecast shows
a downward revision from the previous reading so we're having
to slightly temper our early season optimism that we'll get a significant bounce from last year's abnormally poor weather (our
subscribers and SoI attendPlayed Rounds data
ees know the initial number,
everyone else will have to
for March published by
Golf Datatech registered either guess or order one of
our weather impact reports/
flat to year-ago which
services (see link below) to
was disappointing
put you "in the know").
Played Rounds data for
when coupled with the
previously-reported GPH March published by Golf
Datatech registered flat to
gain which yields a drop
year-ago which was disapin the key Utilization
pointing when coupled with
the
previously-reported
metric for the month.
GPH gain which yields a
drop in the key Utilization
metric for the month. That drop compounded the YtD Utilization unfavorability so, once again, our ability to generate demand
even matching weather continues to lag (Played Rounds down
vs. Available Rounds up). As always, beneath this national picture, there are winners and losers in both Played Rounds and
Utilization Rates among the 61 key Markets (including Pellucid's designated Top 25 markets) and this next-level-detail of
results is also available to Pellucid Publications members and
Geographic Weather Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, "On the surface, I'm happy with
the double-digit gain in GPH for the month. It begged the
question however of how the month compared to the 10-year
average which showed that April, weather-wise, was basically
flat vs. that benchmark of normal. So, we got a good bounce vs.
a really poor April of '18 but, like in Chicago, it was not a particularly memorable month for us as golfers with a mix of warm/
cold/rain/snow (yes, we had 2 snow accumulations in April this

10 The Pellucid PersPecTive

Pac
NW Cst N
/

Pac
NW Cst S
/

No
CA Coast
/

April '19
Pac
Inland N
/

No
Rck Mtn
/

Pac
Inland S
/

C CA
Valley N
/

C CA
Valley C
/

So
CA Coast
/

No
NV
/

No
Int Mtn
/

So
NV
/

Cen
CA So
/

C
Rc

So
Int Mtn
/

Des
SW West
/

Key
>+2% vs. YA
+/- 2% vs. YA
>-2% vs. YA
No arrow = NA

year, go figure). So, depending on whether your course did its
financial planning vs. last year or vs. the multi-year norm (our
perennial recommendation), you'll either be happy with your
comparative report or concerned. Among Pellucid's Top 25 US
Golf Markets for the YtD period, Seattle now stands as the only
Utilization gainer while Dallas/Ft Worth and Atlanta switched
spots for the leading laggard crown. Again, if you want to know
which of our Top 25 Golf Markets posted Utilization gains,
how much and what the dynamics are behind those gains, just
go to our website and get on the Monthly Weather Impact
subscription or sign up for Cognilogic (facility-level access via
the web)." Click here.
n
April 2019

De
SW E
/


https://www.pellucidcorp.com/reports

The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019

TOC
ORCA + weather impact yields new, encouraging Phoenix insights
Industry associations see blue skies, green fields
Public companies have less leeway to “fudge” numbers
April: Solid up, but beats a “soft comp”
Mar Utilization: Flat rounds wastes positive weather
“We’re #2,” chasing San Diego
MCO Consolidation & New Formats Mushroom
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - ORCA + weather impact yields new, encouraging Phoenix insights
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - Industry associations see blue skies, green fields
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - 6
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - 8
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - Public companies have less leeway to “fudge” numbers
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - April: Solid up, but beats a “soft comp”
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - Mar Utilization: Flat rounds wastes positive weather
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - “We’re #2,” chasing San Diego
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - MCO Consolidation & New Formats Mushroom
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