The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - 5

INDUSTRY
HEALTH?

Industry Association's Crystal Ball for '19:

Blue Skies and Green Fields
By Jim Koppenhaver

I

t took until May for the industry trade associations and the
golf chamber of commerce to awaken from their slumber to
weigh in on the state of the industry and their view of what
lies ahead in 2019 but it was worth the wait. Pellucid followers got a view back in January in Orlando of our quantitative
analysis of the '18 results and our qualitative outlook for '19 and
the next 3-5 years. Our assessment could be thus summed up:
*
*

*

*

The industry held its own in '18 on key metrics after
factoring out abnormally poor weather impact
Several of the core metrics' rate of decline have slowed
but we still haven't turned the corner yet on our cardinal
composite metrics of Play Rate (golfers & frequency),
Velocity (supply/demand balance) and Utilization
(weather-adjusted rounds demand)
We're still staring at a considerable challenge in generational shift among the 18-34 age cohort relating to
their participation rate relative to previous generations
in that lifestage (i.e. Silents & Baby Boomers)
TopGolf and other golfertainment options, while
increasing awareness of golf in general, are likely to
be more dilutive than accretive to the "sport" of golf
(played over grass)

www.PellucidCorp.com

For the "alternate reality" perspective, we present to you a recent Forbes article penned by Erik Matuszewski (disclaimer at
the end of the article "outs" him as the Editorial Director for
the NGF) titled, "The State of Golf For 2019 - An Industry
Roundtable." ]. I call it a comedy in five acts because the author
adroitly convenes the heads-of-state for 5 of the industry trade
associations (interestingly absent is the NGCOA which has, in
my opinion, the most relevant line-of-sight to industry health
but, hey, what do I know?) to paint the picture for the Forbes
reader audience of the current and future state of the industry
of golf. Let's take a look at their assessment, talking points &
support and future prognosis one-by-one as reported by Mr.
Matuszewski.
Three probing questions were posed to the panel (with decreasing relevance to the topic of the state of the industry in
my opinion) 1) In your opinion, what is the State of the Industry? 2) How has your organization's communication with golf
fans changed over time? and 3) What would you say are golf 's
societal benefits that some Congressional leaders might not be
aware of? Below I've extracted key points from each organization leader's responses for brevity:
USGA (Mike Davis)
* "As a whole, it's strong. You can feel at any one of the
The Pellucid PersPecTive

5


https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikmatuszewski/2019/05/01/the-state-of-the-golf-industry-for-2019/#3f4bec545208 https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikmatuszewski/2019/05/01/the-state-of-the-golf-industry-for-2019/#3f4bec545208 http://www.PellucidcorP.com

The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019

TOC
ORCA + weather impact yields new, encouraging Phoenix insights
Industry associations see blue skies, green fields
Public companies have less leeway to “fudge” numbers
April: Solid up, but beats a “soft comp”
Mar Utilization: Flat rounds wastes positive weather
“We’re #2,” chasing San Diego
MCO Consolidation & New Formats Mushroom
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - ORCA + weather impact yields new, encouraging Phoenix insights
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - Industry associations see blue skies, green fields
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - 6
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - 8
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - Public companies have less leeway to “fudge” numbers
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - April: Solid up, but beats a “soft comp”
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - Mar Utilization: Flat rounds wastes positive weather
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - “We’re #2,” chasing San Diego
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2019 - MCO Consolidation & New Formats Mushroom
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