The Pellucid Perspective - July 2019 - 15

'00-'17 based on rounds demand change vs. supply change,
you can see in the table above that Supply expanded 16% over
that period, well above the national average of 11% (a Compound Annual Change Rate (CACR) of roughly 0.6%). On
the facility-reported rounds demand side of the equilibrium
equation, DC follows the national trend of slight annual decline over the '00-'17 period of 7% which mirrors the national
average (a CACR of roughly -0.4%). The combination of
modest supply growth and modest demand decline produces
a cumulative dilution of supply of 23% net which is meaningfully over-supplied vs. the national benchmark of -17%.
The average EHE has throughput of roughly 32K rds/yr
handily beats the national average before factoring in climate and
daylight influences. The more accurate measure is the market's
51% Utilization Rate which validates the market's over-performance by beating the national average (42%). This means that,
after neutralizing the weather impact of very favorable annual
weather conditions, the market's average golf "factory" runs at a
noticeably higher throughput vs. the average US course.
In summary, a healthy golfer base and above average Utilization are key assets for this market and contributors to its
Top 10 standing. On the flip side, supply dilution is still a
challenge for the market and the "workout rate" currently is

negative (i.e. continued modest supply growth paired with
modest rounds decline) so there's no current time horizon
back to equilibrium (2000 level). The supply distribution picture is also not necessarily the picture of health with the overweighting to Value-added golf but, the abundance of wealth
in the market most likely mitigates this imbalance. Our summary evaluation is that it's not a bad market if you're currently
in and at least breaking even. If you're looking to enter the
market, it will be all about the buy-side equation. If you're in
the market and hanging on by a thread, we don't have much
encouragement to give short of praying for successive years of
above-average weather (or look for any reasonable (was going
to say attractive but you'll likely have to settle for reasonable)
exit strategy. The good news is that it seems golf 's appeal to
Republicans and Democrats is of similar magnitude so, whatever happens in the political landscape in 2020 shouldn't have
a significant impact on golf in their "home market."
If you'd like to order the full scorecard with over 50 measures for each market and the composite ranking scores, you
can do so at Pellucid's website by clicking here. You can also
get facility draw area-based analysis quickly and affordably by
ordering the GLMA Market Workbook; click here for more
information.
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The Pellucid PersPecTive

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The Pellucid Perspective - July 2019

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