The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 10

WEATHER
IMPACT

OCTOBER

Downward Draft
Blows Across US

O

ctober's weather impact flipped to negative, after a modest September gain, as Golf Playable Hours (GPH)
were down 3%. That also flips the Year-to-Date (YtD)
figure back into fractional negative territory at -0.1%. YtD
regional GPH breadth continues to be unfavorable at 1:2 with
10 favorable regions countered by 22 unfavorable regions (with
13 in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at weather impact
performance by day-of-week for the YtD period, both weekparts (weekday vs. weekend) continue essentially flat but with
some variance evident when we go to the next level of detail
which is dayparts (Mon-Sun). The Year-End (YE) forecast is
finally recognizing the reality of math and took a significant
downward adjustment this month which means that our January SoI proclamation that '19 GPH had to show a significant
"bounce" from '18 will likely prove to be false (ouch).
Played Rounds for September published by Golf Datatech
hit the daily double with rounds demand up 5% which also
handily beat the GPH results and produced the "unicorn" of

Played Rounds for September
published by Golf Datatech hit the
daily double with rounds demand up
5% which also handily beat the GPH
results and produced the "unicorn"
of Rounds up, Utilization up!

Pac
NW Cst N
/

Pac
NW Cst S
/

No
CA Coast
/

Pac
Inland N
/

No
Rck Mtn
/

Pac
Inland S
/

C CA
Valley N
/

C CA
Valley C
/

So
CA Coast
/

No
NV
/

No
Int Mtn
/

So
NV
/

Cen
CA Val So
/

So
Int Mtn
/

Des
SW West
/

Key
>+2% vs. YA
+/- 2% vs. YA
>-2% vs. YA
No arrow = NA

Rounds up, Utilization up! For the YtD period, rounds are now
slightly up beating basically flat weather through 9 months. As
always, beneath this national picture, there are winners and losers in both Played Rounds and Utilization Rates among the 61
key Markets (including Pellucid's designated Top 25 markets)
as outlined in your monthly Excel report.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, "My January confidence that
we'd have to get a 3-5% rounds demand bounce in '19 after historically poor weather in '18 was shaken as we didn't see much
favorability coming through the key summer months but I was
betting we'd get a major Fall break at the national level which
did not materialize. The good news is that it appears rounds
demand is making modest headway against this unfavorable
backdrop which is the whole purpose of measuring Utilization.
We've had 2 consecutive months of positive Utilization which
suggests, while we continue to generally follow weather, rounds

10 The Pellucid PersPecTive

C
Rc

demand isn't a "slave" to it. At the market level, we're seeing
Utilization "winners" in Minneapolis, Philly and Pittsburgh all
posting >3 point gains YtD while the biggest losers are concentrated in Houston and Orange County both being down >2 pts
on the flip side. To last month's question of whether technology would trump intuition in forecasting the finish to the year,
intuition wins this round."
Again, if you want to know which of our Top 25 Golf Markets
posted Utilization gains, how much and what the dynamics are
behind those gains, just go to our website and get on the Monthly
Weather Impact subscription or sign up for Cognilogic (facilitylevel access via the web)." Click here.
November 2019

De
SW E
/


https://www.pellucidcorp.com/reports

The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019

TOC
Golferexit in the UK?
TopGolf in El Segundo CA, the “almost” deal?
Assumptions abound, facts...not as much
October Downward Draft Blows Through US
September’s Utilization Unicorn; Weather Up, Rounds Up More
Orlando Needs All of You to Golf at ’20 Industry Shows!
Typical End-of-Season; 43 Activities Hit the Radar
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - Golferexit in the UK?
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 5
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - TopGolf in El Segundo CA, the “almost” deal?
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - Assumptions abound, facts...not as much
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - October Downward Draft Blows Through US
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - September’s Utilization Unicorn; Weather Up, Rounds Up More
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - Orlando Needs All of You to Golf at ’20 Industry Shows!
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - Typical End-of-Season; 43 Activities Hit the Radar
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 17
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 18
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