The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 13

Golf Playable Hours 2019 Monthy % Chng vs. Year Ago
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec YtD
40% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
30%
30% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
19%
20% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
9%
10% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
2%

1%

1%

0% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
-2%

-2%

-2%

0%

-1%

-2%
-10% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
-7%

-20% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
-20%
Source: Pellucid

In the above, we track the monthly and quarterly timeseries view of weather impact (measured by Golf Playable Hours or GPH) so
our readers can see how the year is playing out at the national level. Again, if you want the 45 regional, the 61 markets or individual
facility-specific figures, you can get those by subscribing either to the Pellucid Publications Membership program, the Geographical
Weather Impact reports or Cognilogic (individual facility down to daily level) at the Pellucid website.
The above chart shows us that October weather returned to the modest declines we've seen 3 of the past 4 months. The October
downward draft opens the Q4 "shoulder season" and the weather watching focus now turns to the 12-month season markets for
the opening of their prime season as golf shuts down here in the northern climes. Obviously results and projections vary across
geographies so if you want a look into our weather forecasting "crystal ball" for the year-end figure, you can get that at facility level
or for the 45 regions and national level by subscribing at the button links below:
Reports

US/Regions/Markets Weather Impact Tracking

Cognilogic Weather Impact Analysis

Utilization Rate 2019 Monthly Point Chng vs. Prior Full Year
YD
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
6.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
5.0
4.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
2.7
1.5
1.3
2.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
0.9
0.7

0.2
- ________________________________________________________________________________________________

(2.0) ________________________________________________________________________________________________
(4.0) ________________________________________________________________________________________________
(4.1)

(6.0) ________________________________________________________________________________________________
(5.4)
(8.0) ________________________________________________________________________________________________

(10.0) ________________________________________________________________________________________________
(11.1)
(12.0) ________________________________________________________________________________________________
Source: Golf Datatech & Pellucid

The above chart represents a timeseries by month of Utilization change which we're sure that by now you all know is the resultant
of Played Rounds (demand) divided by Available Rounds (capacity). We compare each month back to the static prior Year End
figure (52%) to determine if we improved or lost utilization in the current month.
Encouragingly, we saw a 5th consecutive monthly gain in Utilization in September via the optimal combination of increased
rounds in excess of favorable weather. To keep the Utilization winning streak going, the October rounds just have to come in at
some value better than -3% (the GPH result). With 9 months in the books, it's likely that the Year End Utilization is likely to
be flat at best but the trend we're seeing in monthly gains is good momentum heading into 2020 (if it holds through Q4). The
importance of Utilization continues to be demonstrated here in light of a 2nd consecutive below-average weather year. We know
the year-end weather impact forecast, what we don't know is how the golf consumers and their demand will respond to our forecast
of more favorable weather for the balance of the year. Stuart Lindsay's "golfers are more like bears than squirrels" axiom (i.e. we
get more demand from favorable Spring weather as golfers come out of hibernation than we do in the Fall trying to squeeze in
last rounds before winter) will get tested in the closing 3 months of rounds demand for golfers north of the Mason-Dixon line,
stay tuned.
www.PellucidCorp.com

The Pellucid PersPecTive

13


http://www.PellucidcorP.com https://www.pellucidcorp.com/reports https://www.pellucidcorp.com/reports/geography-weather-impact https://www.pellucidcorp.com/services/cognilogic-weather-impact http://www.PellucidcorP.com

The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019

TOC
Golferexit in the UK?
TopGolf in El Segundo CA, the “almost” deal?
Assumptions abound, facts...not as much
October Downward Draft Blows Through US
September’s Utilization Unicorn; Weather Up, Rounds Up More
Orlando Needs All of You to Golf at ’20 Industry Shows!
Typical End-of-Season; 43 Activities Hit the Radar
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - Golferexit in the UK?
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 5
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - TopGolf in El Segundo CA, the “almost” deal?
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - Assumptions abound, facts...not as much
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - October Downward Draft Blows Through US
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - September’s Utilization Unicorn; Weather Up, Rounds Up More
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - Orlando Needs All of You to Golf at ’20 Industry Shows!
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - Typical End-of-Season; 43 Activities Hit the Radar
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 17
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 18
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