The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 14

MARKET FOCUS

Orlando Needs All of You to
Golf at '20 Industry Shows!
Orlando-Kissimmee, FL Core Business
Statistical Area (CBSA)

I

n this monthly section we profile one of the Top 25 US
Golf Markets based on a Pellucid composite score of the
golfer base, the supply level and rounds demand. Within
that Top 25 universe, we then rank them based on relative
health using a Pellucid weighted scoring system of 7 variables
ranging from Population Growth to Avg. Facility Utilization. In this issue, we'll profile the 7th-ranked market, the
Orlando-Kissimmee CBSA. In 2020 it will be the home
for the first concurrent PGA Merchandising Show and Golf
Business Conference. It's one of those (in retrospect) stupid,
simple solutions that should have been done long ago and will
greatly benefit the dual-vendors and attendees of both shows
in not having to make multiple trips to different destinations
annually as well as double-schlepping (is that a word?) all that
heavy metal equipment as well.
By rounds demand (one of our 3 selection criteria for initial inclusion in the Top 25 list), Orlando punches below its
composite ranking weight coming in 18th among US markets
with facility-reported annual demand of just over 3M rounds
(that facility-reported, through-the-turnstiles tally counts
both local and tourist play). Looking at the golf consumer
base, we see that Orlando is home to a healthy local golfer
base of just under 200K golfers (this is only local, resident
population, doesn't count the golf tourists crowd). That golfer
base is served by a solid amount of supply with 120 18-hole
equivalent (EHE) facilities producing an average ratio of
roughly 1,500 local resident golfers per EHE, right on the
national average.
The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's five access/value/usage segments shows a meaningful bias
to the Public-Premium segment at 32% of holes (a 168 index vs. the national contribution). The split between Private/
Public is 31%/69% which is similar to the national average
of 28%/72%. The balance between Value-added golf supply
(Private & Public Premium) vs. Value golf (Public Value, Price
and Learning & Practice) is 63%/37% skewing significantly to
Value-added vs. the national average of 47%/53%. Remember
also that we establish the Premium/Value/Price segments by
individual market so that's factoring in differences in cost of
living/cost of golf as we cross markets (unlike NGF where
New York City is the same as Kansas City, go figure). Within
Public-Regulation golf, the distribution between Premium/
Value/Price is 50%/27%/23% which meaningfully "tilts"
the direction of Public-Premium vs. the national picture of
31%/47%/23% (at the expense of Public-Value, where in other
markets an increasing amount of supply has gravitated).
Using our new methodology for calculating Supply/De-

14 The Pellucid PersPecTive

Private

PublicPremium

PublicValue

PublicPrice

Learning
& Practice

OrlandoKissimmee, FL
CBSA

Golfer Base
- Est. # of Golfers (Ks)
- # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities
- Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv.
Supply Mix
- Private
- Pub-Prem
- Pub-Val
- Pub-Price
- Learn & Prac

Supply/Demand Balance
- '00-'17 Cume Supply Growth/Decline
- '00-'17 Cume Rds Demand Growth/
Decline+
- '00-'17 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution
(-)/Absorption (+) Level*+
Av. Facility Throughput & Efficiency
- Avg. Ann Rds Velocity (Ks, per EHE)
- %Utilization Rate

Future
Facility

Tot US

Index
vs. US

184.7 25,500
120 16,749
1,539 1,535

111

31%
32%
17%
15%
5%

28%
19%
29%
14%
9%

43%
16%

11%
-7%

-13%

-17%

30.2
40%

26.5
42%

111
168
59
106
58

114
95

* Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply

Above average level vs. US (Index >105)
Average level vs. US (Index 95-104)
Below average level vs. US (Index <95)

mand equilibrium and how the picture has changed from '00'17 based on rounds demand change vs. supply change, you
can see in the table above that Supply expanded 43% over
that period (wow!), well over the national average of 11% (a
Compound Annual Change Rate (CACR) of roughly 0.6%).
On the facility-reported rounds demand side of the equiNovember 2019



The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019

TOC
Golferexit in the UK?
TopGolf in El Segundo CA, the “almost” deal?
Assumptions abound, facts...not as much
October Downward Draft Blows Through US
September’s Utilization Unicorn; Weather Up, Rounds Up More
Orlando Needs All of You to Golf at ’20 Industry Shows!
Typical End-of-Season; 43 Activities Hit the Radar
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - Golferexit in the UK?
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 5
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - TopGolf in El Segundo CA, the “almost” deal?
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - Assumptions abound, facts...not as much
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - October Downward Draft Blows Through US
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - September’s Utilization Unicorn; Weather Up, Rounds Up More
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - Orlando Needs All of You to Golf at ’20 Industry Shows!
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - Typical End-of-Season; 43 Activities Hit the Radar
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 17
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 18
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202101
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202012
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202010
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202009
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202008
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202007
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202006
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202005
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202004
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202003
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202002
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_202001
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201912
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201911
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201910
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201909
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201908
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201907
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201906
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201905
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201904
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201903
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201902
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201901
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201812
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201811
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201810
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201808
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201807
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201806
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201805
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201804
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201803
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201802
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201801
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201712
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201711
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201710
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201709
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201708
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201707
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201706
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201705
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201704
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201703
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201702
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201701
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201612
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201611
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201610
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201609
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201608
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201606
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201605
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201604
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201603
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201602
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201601
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201512
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201511
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201510
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201509
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201508
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201507
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201506
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201505
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201504
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201503
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201502
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201501
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201412
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201411
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201410
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201409
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201408
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201407
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201406
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201404
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201403
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201402
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201401
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201312
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201311
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201310
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201309
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201308
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201307
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201306
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201305
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201304
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201303
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201302
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201301
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201212
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201211
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201210
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201209
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201208
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201207
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201206
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201205
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201204
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201202
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201112
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201111
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201110
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201109
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201108
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201107
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201106
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201105
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201104
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201103
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201102
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201101
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201012
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201010
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201008
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com