The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019 - 14

MARKET FOCUS

Orlando Needs All of You to
Golf at '20 Industry Shows!
Orlando-Kissimmee, FL Core Business
Statistical Area (CBSA)

n this monthly section we profile one of the Top 25 US
Golf Markets based on a Pellucid composite score of the
golfer base, the supply level and rounds demand. Within
that Top 25 universe, we then rank them based on relative
health using a Pellucid weighted scoring system of 7 variables
ranging from Population Growth to Avg. Facility Utilization. In this issue, we'll profile the 7th-ranked market, the
Orlando-Kissimmee CBSA. In 2020 it will be the home
for the first concurrent PGA Merchandising Show and Golf
Business Conference. It's one of those (in retrospect) stupid,
simple solutions that should have been done long ago and will
greatly benefit the dual-vendors and attendees of both shows
in not having to make multiple trips to different destinations
annually as well as double-schlepping (is that a word?) all that
heavy metal equipment as well.
By rounds demand (one of our 3 selection criteria for initial inclusion in the Top 25 list), Orlando punches below its
composite ranking weight coming in 18th among US markets
with facility-reported annual demand of just over 3M rounds
(that facility-reported, through-the-turnstiles tally counts
both local and tourist play). Looking at the golf consumer
base, we see that Orlando is home to a healthy local golfer
base of just under 200K golfers (this is only local, resident
population, doesn't count the golf tourists crowd). That golfer
base is served by a solid amount of supply with 120 18-hole
equivalent (EHE) facilities producing an average ratio of
roughly 1,500 local resident golfers per EHE, right on the
national average.
The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's five access/value/usage segments shows a meaningful bias
to the Public-Premium segment at 32% of holes (a 168 index vs. the national contribution). The split between Private/
Public is 31%/69% which is similar to the national average
of 28%/72%. The balance between Value-added golf supply
(Private & Public Premium) vs. Value golf (Public Value, Price
and Learning & Practice) is 63%/37% skewing significantly to
Value-added vs. the national average of 47%/53%. Remember
also that we establish the Premium/Value/Price segments by
individual market so that's factoring in differences in cost of
living/cost of golf as we cross markets (unlike NGF where
New York City is the same as Kansas City, go figure). Within
Public-Regulation golf, the distribution between Premium/
Value/Price is 50%/27%/23% which meaningfully "tilts"
the direction of Public-Premium vs. the national picture of
31%/47%/23% (at the expense of Public-Value, where in other
markets an increasing amount of supply has gravitated).
Using our new methodology for calculating Supply/De-

14 The Pellucid PersPecTive

Private

PublicPremium

PublicValue

PublicPrice

Learning
& Practice

OrlandoKissimmee, FL
CBSA

Golfer Base
- Est. # of Golfers (Ks)
- # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities
- Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv.
Supply Mix
- Private
- Pub-Prem
- Pub-Val
- Pub-Price
- Learn & Prac

Supply/Demand Balance
- '00-'17 Cume Supply Growth/Decline
- '00-'17 Cume Rds Demand Growth/
Decline+
- '00-'17 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution
(-)/Absorption (+) Level*+
Av. Facility Throughput & Efficiency
- Avg. Ann Rds Velocity (Ks, per EHE)
- %Utilization Rate

Future
Facility

Tot US

Index
vs. US

184.7 25,500
120 16,749
1,539 1,535

111

31%
32%
17%
15%
5%

28%
19%
29%
14%
9%

43%
16%

11%
-7%

-13%

-17%

30.2
40%

26.5
42%

111
168
59
106
58

114
95

* Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply

Above average level vs. US (Index >105)
Average level vs. US (Index 95-104)
Below average level vs. US (Index <95)

mand equilibrium and how the picture has changed from '00'17 based on rounds demand change vs. supply change, you
can see in the table above that Supply expanded 43% over
that period (wow!), well over the national average of 11% (a
Compound Annual Change Rate (CACR) of roughly 0.6%).
On the facility-reported rounds demand side of the equiNovember 2019

The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - November 2019