The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019 - 10

WEATHER
IMPACT

NOVEMBER

Lift for CounterSeasonal Markets

ovember's weather impact turned in a nice gain as Golf
Playable Hours (GPH) were up 5%. That pulls the
Year-to-Date (YtD) figure back into fractional positive
territory at +0.1%. YtD regional GPH breadth continues to
be unfavorable at 1:2 with 11 favorable regions countered by
22 unfavorable regions (with 12 in the neutral zone of +/- 2%).
Looking at weather impact performance by day-of-week for
the YtD period, both weekparts (weekday vs. weekend) continue essentially flat but with some variance evident when we
go to individual days analysis (Mon-Sun). The Year-End (YE)
forecast yielded to reality last month and held steady in November (I hope so, we've now got 11 months gone, I think even
I could forecast the close from here).
Played Rounds for October published by Golf Datatech registered a 2nd consecutive "daily double" with rounds demand
up 4% which also handily beat the negative GPH results producing a Utilization gain as well. For the YtD period, rounds
are now slightly up beating basically flat weather through 10

Played Rounds for October published by
Golf Datatech registered a 2nd consecutive
"daily double" with rounds demand up 4%
which also handily beat the negative GPH
results producing a Utilization gain as well.
months. As always, beneath this national picture, there are
winners and losers in both Played Rounds and Utilization
Rates among the 61 key Markets (including Pellucid's designated Top 25 markets) as outlined in your monthly Excel
report.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, "November weather gains
were encouragingly driven by extended-season markets (i.e.
SE Coast, Gulf Coast, Texas) vs. historical patterns of getting
Great Lakes favorability so the rounds impact should be higher
as well as getting many of the counter-seasonal markets off
to a good start for their "winter season." The October "beat"
on rounds vs. weather is the first time we've seen that kind of
divergence in results in over 5 years so it's either an encouraging sign or an anomaly in the rounds collection and compilation; we'll know which one when we see next month's results.
The other encouraging news in the market-level Utilization is
that we're seeing good breadth figures (4:1 to gains vs. declines)
although the majority of markets remain in neutral territory
(42 of 61). Speaking of market performance, Minneapolis and
Washington DC are the leading gainers but they get there dif-

10 The Pellucid PersPecTive

Pac
NW Cst N
/

Pac
NW Cst S
/

No
CA Coast
/

Pac
Inland N
/

No
Rck Mtn
/

Pac
Inland S
/

C CA
Valley N
/

C CA
Valley C
/

So
CA Coast
/

No
NV
/

No
Int Mtn
/

So
NV
/

Cen
CA Val So
/

C
Rc

So
Int Mtn
/

Des
SW West
/

Key
>+2% vs. YA
+/- 2% vs. YA
>-2% vs. YA
No arrow = NA

ferently; Minneapolis with rounds beating poor weather, DC
with rounds gains eclipsing favorable weather. On the flip side,
the encouraging sign is that only one of our Top 25 markets
(Orange County, CA) is showing a meaningful Utilization lag.
While not market-beating results, some of the underlying diagnostics are showing signs of hope closing out the year and
heading into whatever '20 will bring."
Again, if you want to know which of our Top 25 Golf Markets
posted Utilization gains, how much and what the dynamics are
behind those gains, just go to our website and get on the Monthly
Weather Impact subscription or sign up for Cognilogic (facilitylevel access via the web)." Click here.
December 2019

De
SW E
/

https://www.pellucidcorp.com/reports

The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019

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