The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019 - 13

Golf Playable Hours 2019 Monthy % Chng vs. Year Ago
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec YtD
40% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
30%
30% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
19%
20% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
9%
10% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
5%
2%

1%

1%

0% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
-2%

-2%

0%

-2%

-1%

-3%
-10% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
-7%

-20% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
-20%
Source: Pellucid

In the above, we track the monthly and quarterly timeseries view of weather impact (measured by Golf Playable Hours or GPH) so
our readers can see how the year is playing out at the national level. Again, if you want the 45 regional, the 61 markets or individual
facility-specific figures, you can get those by subscribing either to the Pellucid Publications Membership program, the Geographical
Weather Impact reports or Cognilogic (individual facility down to daily level) at the Pellucid website.
The above chart shows us that November weather bounced back after October's unfavorability. That result was welcome news
for the counter-seasonal markets but does little for the northern climes so late in their season (post-first snowfall for many markets
like Chicago). Obviously results and projections vary across geographies so if you want a look into our weather forecasting "crystal
ball" for the year-end figure, you can get that at facility level or for the 45 regions and national level by subscribing at the button
links below:
Reports

US/Regions/Markets Weather Impact Tracking

Cognilogic Weather Impact Analysis

Utilization Rate 2019 Monthly Point Chng vs. Prior Full Year
YD
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
6.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
5.0
3.6

2.7
3.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
1.5
0.7

1.3

0.9

0.5

- ________________________________________________________________________________________________
(3.0) ________________________________________________________________________________________________
(4.1)

(6.0) ________________________________________________________________________________________________
(5.4)
(9.0) ________________________________________________________________________________________________
(11.1)
(12.0) ________________________________________________________________________________________________
Source: Golf Datatech & Pellucid

The above chart represents a timeseries by month of Utilization change which we're sure that by now you all know is the resultant
of Played Rounds (demand) divided by Available Rounds (capacity). We compare each month back to the static prior Year End
figure (52%) to determine if we improved or lost utilization in the current month.
Encouragingly, we saw a 6th consecutive (and highest in magnitude) monthly gain in Utilization in October via the unusual
combination of increased rounds against unfavorable weather. The November weather favorability of 4% now presents the challenge, to keep the Utilization gains streak going, of needing to post a 5%+ gain; not an easy challenge but we'll see how golfers
respond nationwide. With 10 months in the books, it's likely that the Year End Utilization is likely to be flat at best but the trend
we're seeing in monthly gains is good momentum heading into 2020. The importance of having comparisons to both prior year
and the 10-year average is demonstrated here as we head toward a 2nd consecutive below-average weather year. We know the
year-end weather impact forecast, if consumers at least keep up with the weather, it won't get significantly better or worse in our
closing 2 months. The October results seem to belie Stuart Lindsay's "golfers are more like bears than squirrels" axiom (i.e. we get
more demand from favorable Spring weather as golfers come out of hibernation than we do in the Fall trying to squeeze in last
rounds before winter); let's see what happens to demand though as the November weather results offered more playing opportunities than last year.
www.PellucidCorp.com

The Pellucid PersPecTive

13


https://www.pellucidcorp.com/ https://www.pellucidcorp.com/reports/geography-weather-impact https://www.pellucidcorp.com/reports https://www.pellucidcorp.com/services/cognilogic-weather-impact http://www.PellucidcorP.com

The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019

TOC
Whence forward in the new GolfNow era?
Those who don’t study history are doomed to repeat it (Churchill)
Municipal Golf & Medicare-for-All
November upward lift should help counter-seasonal markets
October Utilization surprise; Weather down, Rounds up
Seattle fundamentals provide reason for “high” hopes
17 Activities dominated by offseason transactions
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019 - Whence forward in the new GolfNow era?
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019 - Those who don’t study history are doomed to repeat it (Churchill)
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019 - 6
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019 - Municipal Golf & Medicare-for-All
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019 - November upward lift should help counter-seasonal markets
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019 - October Utilization surprise; Weather down, Rounds up
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019 - Seattle fundamentals provide reason for “high” hopes
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019 - 17 Activities dominated by offseason transactions
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019 - 17
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