The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 12

WEATHER
IMPACT

MARCH

COVID Interrupts a
Strong Q1

M

arch's weather impact turned in a 5th consecutive
month of gains as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) were
up 24% nationally. That's a 2nd month of doubledigit gains this year and boosts the Year-to-Date (YtD) result
to +19%. YtD regional GPH breadth also is positive and improved from February now registering 15:1 with 15 favorable
regions outnumbering the lone unfavorable region (SE Inland,
while 4 are in the neutral zone of +/- 2% and the remaining 25
out-of-season). Looking at weather impact performance by
day-of-week for the YtD period, both weekparts (weekday vs.
weekend) are in positive territory but with expected variance
across the individual days (Mon-Sun). The Year-End (YE)
forecast is still in the green but had a significant downward
move to +5% vs. Year-Ago (YA, the previous figure was +9%)
and, were we to achieve that, it would represent a +3% comparison to the 10-year average normal.
Played Rounds for February published by Golf Datatech
followed weather directionally higher and actually beat it with
a healthy 19% gain which outpaced the +9% GPH results,
producing a 5-point gain in Utilization vs. the '19 YE figure.
This brought the YtD Utilization figure to "even", both rounds
and GPH being up 15% each. As always, beneath this national picture, there are winners and losers in both Played Rounds
and Utilization Rates among the 61 key Markets (including
Pellucid's designated Top 25 markets).
Jim Koppenhaver comments, "In the "can't catch a break
category," March's favorable weather will be largely squandered as we confront the health challenge in front of us and
the patchwork and changing state mandates on whether golf
can be safely played (much like walking on trails, riding a bike
etc.) or not.
Most states appear to be allowing course maintenance to
proceed so, if nothing else, the favorable weather should give
Superintendants some help in getting courses in top shape
when play can finally resume. I found it comical that one
of the Governors this week issued a statement "If you're not
the gardener, you shouldn't be on the course." I'm guessing our 13K+ Superintendent group never really thought of
themselves as gardeners but that's the extent of the golf course
knowledge of that particular Governor. The other thing that
caught my eye is the fact that the yearend forecast moderated by almost half this month. That's actually encouraging to
me because I thought the previous would be an unusually big
shift both year-to-year and against the 10-year Norm. Unfortunately, the way this season's going to play out due to the
COVID "hiatus," we could have used that kind of 2nd half
favorability that was previously forecast. There's nothing we

12 The Pellucid Perspective

Pac
NW Cst N
/

Pac
NW Cst S
/

No
CA Coast
/

Pac
Inland N
/

No
Rck Mtn
/

Pac
Inland S
/

C CA
Valley N
/

C CA
Valley C
/

So
CA Coast
/

No
NV
/

No
Int Mtn
/

So
NV
/

Cen
CA Val So
/

C
Rc

So
Int Mtn
/

Des
SW West
/

Key
>+2% vs. YA
+/- 2% vs. YA
>-2% vs. YA
No arrow = NA

can do to change the weather so we'll just forecast and plan
for whatever that shows and the rest will take care of itself.
The final piece of good news is that Utilization at the market
level is also very healthy with 20 markets in positive territory
vs. 7 in negative, one of the first times that Neutral (6 markets)
hasn't been the majority classification. When play resumes,
we appear to be in relatively good position to take advantage
of it. The key question in the interim is how many operators
who were hanging on for dear life will lose the battle due to
this completely unprecedented 2-4 month (my speculation)
business interruption?"

April 2020

De
SW E
/



The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020

TOC
COVID, an unlikely golden opportunity for golf?
Golf operator’s dilemma: Shut down or soldier on?
A (semi) quantitative analysis of COVID’s full year impact
March favorability squandered...
Feb Utilization a solid up; Rounds gain beats favorable weather
Detroit, the indefatigable market faces down another challenge
10 Activities; Closeds edge out Transactions 5 to 4
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - COVID, an unlikely golden opportunity for golf?
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - Golf operator’s dilemma: Shut down or soldier on?
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 6
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - A (semi) quantitative analysis of COVID’s full year impact
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 8
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 10
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - March favorability squandered...
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - Feb Utilization a solid up; Rounds gain beats favorable weather
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - Detroit, the indefatigable market faces down another challenge
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 17
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 10 Activities; Closeds edge out Transactions 5 to 4
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 19
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