The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 8

INDUSTRY
IMPACTS

Figure 1

subsite on COVID helps us range in on this (full disclosure,
GBS is a Perspective sponsor but all information and images in
this article are from the public domain and GBS has not been
consulted or advised us on this article.)
The NGF-Q subsite on COVID puts the percent of courses
open at 44% so we've got a range of US courses closed from 4556% (the inverse of 44% open) and I picked a midpoint of 50%.
Based on following the national news reports and looking at the
slope of the above line, I'm making the assumption that we're
likely at or near the apex for government regulation on golf
courses. California is the big wild card (isn't it always) in that
it's a big state and they keep debating things back-and-forth at
the local level which can have a material impact on this picture/

under lockdown with the exception of Ohio and Indiana. That
means we'll see bigger absolute impact on rounds on Q2 than
Q1 until restrictions are lifted in these core states.
So now I have to go out on a limb and make some projection regarding how long we'll remain in the current composition of states open/closed. For the purpose of this exercise, I'm
going to make it easy on me and the math by calling it Q2
which assumes that the conditions here in early April persist
until 6/30/20. Now it gets fun because we need to know what
the annual national rounds contribution is for Q2 to the full
year as well as the contribution to full year of Golf Playable
Hours (GPH) as the weather warms and the daylight lengthens
en route to the 6/21 summer solstice. Reaching back into our

Based on following the national news reports
and looking at the slope of the above line,
I'm making the assumption that we're
likely at or near the apex for government
regulation on golf courses.
projection). The next step, due to seasonality across states, is
to look at the dispersion of states open/closed using both the
GBS and NGF accounts. I chose below the GBS graphic just
because it's more instructive than the NGF regional summary
of open/close. (See Figure 2 on next page.)
The general observations on the map above are that government golf restrictions are more prevalent in the north vs. the
south, more in the east vs. the west (using the Mississippi River
as a rough dividing point). Interestingly, of the primary 10+
month season geographies (SE coast, FL, GA, TX, AZ, CA) it's
a mixed bag so as we've progressed through calendar Q1, we've
not experienced the full impact of the shutdowns in the rounds
info we'll visit shortly. The key thing to keep in mind for the
upcoming quarter (Apr-Jun) is that of our core northern rounds
geographies (Great Lakes and Northeast), the vast majority are

8 The Pellucid Perspective

industry archives (PerformanceTrak 2010) and using Pellucid's
proprietary weather impact work, we find that Q2 historically
represents 32% of annual rounds and 36% of annual GPH.
The final piece to the puzzle is what the impact on rounds has
been at the current 45% closure rate. For that I took the GBS
GIR daily report and used the April Month-to-Date rounds %
change vs. year-ago as my proxy under the assumption that it
best fully reflects the current state of lockdown (much of which
was in flux during 2nd half of March but many got resolved by
end of the month like IL). For the period 4/1-4/10, the national GBS course universe year-on-year deficit was -33% (I'm
going to use a round -35% in below example)
That allows us to build the below chart attempting to estimate both the rounds impact of a "COVID-restricted" Q2 as
well some positive offset due to forecast favorable weather for
April 2020



The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020

TOC
COVID, an unlikely golden opportunity for golf?
Golf operator’s dilemma: Shut down or soldier on?
A (semi) quantitative analysis of COVID’s full year impact
March favorability squandered...
Feb Utilization a solid up; Rounds gain beats favorable weather
Detroit, the indefatigable market faces down another challenge
10 Activities; Closeds edge out Transactions 5 to 4
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - COVID, an unlikely golden opportunity for golf?
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - Golf operator’s dilemma: Shut down or soldier on?
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 6
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - A (semi) quantitative analysis of COVID’s full year impact
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 8
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 10
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - March favorability squandered...
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - Feb Utilization a solid up; Rounds gain beats favorable weather
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - Detroit, the indefatigable market faces down another challenge
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 17
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 10 Activities; Closeds edge out Transactions 5 to 4
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 19
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