The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 9

Figure 2

H2 ( Jul-Dec) from Pellucid's Cognilogic capability. (See Figure
3 below.)
Walking down through the line items, if current conditions
hold we have roughly 144M rounds "exposed" to the current restrictions. If the year-on-year rounds "comps" are a 35% deficit
that would cost us roughly 50M rounds in the year-end tally.
The fortunate thing is that our current GPH forecast is showing a solid mid-single digit improvement over last year which
is reflected in the middle section. Using weighted averaging
for H2, we should be able to recover ~4M rounds against our
COVID deficit, all other things being equal. That leaves us
with this back-of-the-envelope projection that COVID likely
Figure 3

costs us about a 10% decline by year end. In doing the analysis
I stumbled upon two favorable factors that will actually help
minimize the damage if we're able to be back in (unconstrained)
business by 7/1:
*	
*	

The annual rounds distribution nationally "tilts" to H2
vs. H1 by 54%/46%
The annual GPH distribution nationally (weighted by
rounds contribution of the Pellucid 45 weather-based
regions) also "tilts" to H2 vs. H1 by 53% vs. 47%

That's the "glass-half-full" news I have for you on this topic.
While talking with colleague Stuart Lindsay, he pointed out
that the picture is going to be very different for northern courses who didn't have the benefit of a relatively strong Q1 before
Figure 4

www.PellucidCorp.com

The Pellucid Perspective

9


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The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020

TOC
COVID, an unlikely golden opportunity for golf?
Golf operator’s dilemma: Shut down or soldier on?
A (semi) quantitative analysis of COVID’s full year impact
March favorability squandered...
Feb Utilization a solid up; Rounds gain beats favorable weather
Detroit, the indefatigable market faces down another challenge
10 Activities; Closeds edge out Transactions 5 to 4
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - COVID, an unlikely golden opportunity for golf?
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - Golf operator’s dilemma: Shut down or soldier on?
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 6
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - A (semi) quantitative analysis of COVID’s full year impact
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 8
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 10
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - March favorability squandered...
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - Feb Utilization a solid up; Rounds gain beats favorable weather
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - Detroit, the indefatigable market faces down another challenge
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 17
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 10 Activities; Closeds edge out Transactions 5 to 4
The Pellucid Perspective - April 2020 - 19
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