The Pellucid Perspective - May 2020 - 15

Value, Price and Learning & Practice) is 56%/44% skewing
significantly to Value-added golf vs. the national average of
47%/53%. Remember also that we establish the Premium/
Value/Price segments by individual market so that's factoring
in differences in cost of living/cost of golf as we cross markets
(unlike NGF where Manhattan NY has the same price segmentation as Manhattan KS, go figure). Within Public-Regulation golf, the distribution between Premium/Value/Price is
51%/40%/9% which is incredibly heavy to Public-Premium
(at the expense of Public-Price) vs. the national picture of
31%/47%/23%.
Using our new methodology for calculating Supply/Demand equilibrium and how the picture has changed from '00-'17 based
on rounds demand change vs. supply
change, you can see in the table above
that Supply expanded 12% over that
period, similar to the national average
of 11% (a Compound Annual Change
Rate (CACR) of roughly 0.6%). On
the facility-reported rounds demand
side of the equilibrium equation the
modest supply expansion during that
period was exacerbated by a rounds
demand decline of 18% over the '00'17 period (2.5x the national rate of
decline, wow!). The confluence of
these two factors results in the cumulative supply dilution resting at -30% or
meaningfully better than the national
benchmark of -17% (still oversupplied, just not as much as the nation in
whole). That suggests that 60 facilities
could disappear in Minneapolis and
the market wouldn't likely miss a beat.
Despite that, the average EHE
has throughput of ~29K rds/yr which
is slightly above the national average.
Factoring in weather and daylight, the
more accurate measure is the market's 55% Utilization Rate which is
well above the national average (42%).
This means that, after neutralizing the
weather impact of a moderate-length
season, the market's average golf
"factory" runs at significantly higher throughput than the average US
course.
In summary, the primary contributors to Minneapolis' Top 15 standing
are Future Population Growth, Play
Rate (round per capita), and Utilization. The primary mitigating factors
are the supply overhang and the imbalance in that supply to Public-Premium. We'll be coming out shortly with
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a report on municipal golf distribution across the major US
markets and how those facilities fall across Premium, Value
and Price; it will be interesting to see if Minne's munis have
migrated up the price spectrum like has happened in Chicago
and some other markets or if the muni supply in Minneapolis
is what's holding down the fort for affordable golf.
If you'd like to order the full scorecard with over 50 measures for each market and the composite ranking scores, you
can do so at Pellucid's website by clicking here. You can also
get facility draw area-based analysis quickly and affordably by
ordering the GLMA Market Workbook; click here for more
information.
n

The Pellucid Perspective

https://www.pellucidcorp.com/reports/top-golf-markets-ranking-and-measures https://www.pellucidcorp.com/reports/market-analysis https://www.kempersports.com/ http://www.PellucidcorP.com

The Pellucid Perspective - May 2020

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