The Pellucid Perspective - July 2020 - 10

WEATHER
IMPACT

JUNE

National GPH
neutral, regional
"mileage" varies

Pac
NW Cst N
Pac
Inland N

Pac
Inland S

emember those old car commercials that featured
miles-per-gallon figures and all the commercials had to
include "your mileage may vary"? June's weather can be
described as flat nationally but regional mileage varied significantly. At the national level Golf Playable Hours (GPH) were
up 0.2% nationally. That neutral result again slightly eroded
the Year-to-Date (YtD) result to +3%. YtD regional GPH
breadth remains positive at 2:1 with 27 favorable regions outnumbering 12 unfavorable regions with 6 in the neutral zone
(+/- 2%). Looking at weather impact performance by day-ofweek for the YtD period, both weekparts (weekday vs. weekend) remain in positive territory but with variance across the
individual days (Mon-Sun). The Year-End (YE) forecast (unusually) swung to the negative this month suggesting we may
not get the expected tailwind for the balance of the year. Subscribers can see those breakdowns as well as the full-year forecast at the national level by subscribing to either the Pellucid
Publications Membership or the Nat'l/Reg'l/Mkts Weather
Impact Reports.
Played Rounds for May published by Golf Datatech showed
the first full-month of the "COVID relaxed" era and the
much-publicized "surge" registering +6% vs. YA which compares favorably to our previously-reported -2% GPH results
for the month. For the year they're reporting -8% (after MarApr's COVID carnage) against our +4% GPH so Utilization
is down 6 points but, in light of everything that's been thrown
at golf operators, it's not actually that bad. In light of the
widespread closures, Golf Datatech has shifted to reporting
only state-level results so we've shifted accordingly and applied the appropriate state rounds change to the market-level
GPH change to "proxy" the Utilization changes. Again, subscribers to our reports have visibility to the Weather Impact
and Utilization Rates for 50 States currently.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, "Well, I got at least one "call"
right this year in my prediction last month that April results
would likely be as bad as it gets. At the risk of being called
unduly pessimistic (NGF has already done that, the day after
our last OtR was published on this topic), I really thought
the national "bounce" in May would be higher. We'll wait to
see what the June rounds results show and that will give us a
clearer picture on whether there's more "surge" or whether we
peaked in May. Speaking of NGF, prior to the May GDT
rounds being published, they outlined a scenario to recover the
estimated 20M lost rounds by year end that included a 20%

10 THE PELLUCID PERSPECTIVE

No
Rck Mtn

Pac
NW Cst S

C CA
Valley N
No
CA Coast

C CA
Valley C

So
CA Coast

No
NV

No
Int Mtn

So
NV

Cen
CA Val So

C
Rc

So
Int Mtn

Des
SW West

Key
>+2% vs. YA
+/- 2% vs. YA
>-2% vs. YA
No arrow = NA

surge in May followed by a 10% favorable comp in June and
then flat the balance of the year. Given that May was only 6%
their math to full recovery is already challenged significantly
in Month 1 so I guess we'll take the criticism that we're underwhelmed vs. their side of the bet currently (ha, ha). As
always, we're finding the operator community in general being
resourceful and working hard to invite recreation-restrained
consumers out to the course and giving them a fun experience
for their time and money investment. At this point that's all
we can do. Let's see what the June rounds hold and, with
any luck, a little more favorability on the weather side as a
tailwind."
n
JULY 2020

De
SW E

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The Pellucid Perspective - July 2020

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