The Pellucid Perspective - July 2020 - 14

MARKET FOCUS

Miami market a balance
of red and green lights
Miami-Ft Lauderdale-West Palm
Beach, FL Core Business Statistical
Area (CBSA)

n this monthly section we profile one of the Top 25 US Golf
Markets based on a Pellucid composite score of the golfer
base, the supply level and rounds demand. Within that Top
25 universe, we then rank them based on relative health using
a Pellucid weighted scoring system of 7 variables ranging from
Population Growth to Avg. Facility Utilization. In this issue,
we'll profile the 16th-ranked market, the Chicago-NapervilleElgin, IL Metro CBSA. For regular followers of this column,
you'll notice 2 changes in the map above and noted in the Legend: 1) We're now distinguishing within Public-Regulation
Length Munis (green symbols) vs. For Profits (blue symbols)
as well as adding in Closed Courses since 2000 (black symbols).
This is a new feature of our soon-to-be-released '20 version of
the GLMA and we've worked hard on several enhancements.
Building on that, you'll see that Chicago is has significant Red
(Private) and Green (Muni) representation and Pellucid's home
market is known for its summer Standing Tee Times program
among munis as well as being well-represented by weekday
9-hole leagues due to the longer summer daylight hours.
By rounds demand (one of our 3 selection criteria for initial
inclusion in the Top 25 list), Chicago punches well above its
composite ranking weight coming in 3rd among US markets
with facility-reported annual demand of just under 9M rounds
(that's the through-the-turnstiles tally which counts both local and significant tourist/snowbirds play). Looking at the golf
consumer base, we see that Chicago is home to a healthy local golfer base of ~1M golfers (this is local, resident population
only). That golfer base is served by a healthy supply base of 379
18-hole equivalent (EHE) facilities producing an average ratio
of just between 2-3K local resident golfers per EHE, a level
84% higher the national average.
The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's
five access/value/usage segments shows an incredible skew to
the Public-Premium segment at 23% of holes (a 123 index vs.
the national contribution). The split between Private/Public
is 32%/68% which, is slightly tilted to Private vs. the national
average of 28%/72%. The balance between Value-added golf
supply (Private & Public Premium) vs. Value golf (Public Value,
Price and Learning & Practice) is 55%/45% skewing moderately to Value-added golf vs. the national average of 47%/53%
(due to over-representation of both Private and Public-Premium). Remember also that we establish the Premium/Value/
Price segments by individual market so that's factoring in dif-

14 THE PELLUCID PERSPECTIVE

Private

PubPubPremium Premium
FPROF
MUNI

PubValue
FPROF

PubValue
MUNI

PubPrice
FPROF

PubPrice
MUNI

Closed

Tot US

Index
vs. US

1,026.7 25,000
379 16,947
2,709 1,475

184

Chicago-Naperville
Elgin, IL

Golfer Base
- Est. # of Golfers (Ks)
- # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities
- Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv.

Learning
&
Practice

Supply Mix
- Private
- Pub-Prem
- Pub-Val
- Pub-Price
- Learn & Prac
Supply/Demand Balance
- '00-'17 Cume Supply Growth/Decline
- '00-'17 Cume Rds Demand Growth/
Decline+
- '00-'17 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution
(-)/Absorption (+) Level*+
Av. Facility Throughput & Efficiency
- Avg. Ann Rds Velocity (Ks, per EHE)
- %Utilization Rate

32%
23%
25%
13%
7%

28%
19%
29%
14%
9%

7%
-20%

11%
-7%

-27%

-17%

23.6
44%

26.5
42%

113
123
86
92
80

89
106

* Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply

Above average level vs. US (Index >105)
Average level vs. US (Index 95-104)
Below average level vs. US (Index <95)

JULY 2020

The Pellucid Perspective - July 2020

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