The Pellucid Perspective - July 2020 - 8

SUPPLY/DEMAND

It also appears, by the rate of change, that the worst carnage was done in the first 4
months (+45%) and post-April we've settled back into a lower comparative rate (+22%)
which is both proportional to history (i.e. fewer closures once the season is underway in
the North) and suggests that many of the operators who are "on the bubble" are gamely
trying to figure out a way to make it through the season and then re-assess.
First, to set up the chart. The gray and black bars represent closures, gray being the months in '19 and black being the
months in '20. I've chosen to show these as Year-to-Date (YtD)
so, just to be clear, it's not showing that the absolute number of
closures is increasing each month, it's rather showing the buildup rate of the closures as the year progresses. What you can see
clearly though is that, beginning in January, we've been ahead of
'19's run rate from the get go. Where we've "stopped the clock"
in July, we're up ~8% comparing '20 to '19. Before you get too
excited (or depressed) about that, realize that while our figures
above aren't comprehensive, that's only ~8 facilities. Part of this
is due to the fact that closures skew heavily to the end of the
season in the North so it will likely get larger both as a percent
change as well as in the number of courses. It also appears, by
the rate of change, that the worst carnage was done in the first
4 months (+45%) and post-April we've settled back into a lower
comparative rate (+22%) which is both proportional to history

8 THE PELLUCID PERSPECTIVE

(i.e. fewer closures once the season is underway in the North)
and suggests that many of the operators who are "on the bubble"
are gamely trying to figure out a way to make it through the
season and then re-assess.
The yellow and red bars represent transactions, '19 vs. '20 respectively. For clarity, we classify a transaction as an event that
we have knowledge of or in the public domain where the immediate intent is to continue golf operations at that facility/location. Courses that transact with redevelopment plans (i.e. real
estate, green space, breweries etc.) we code Closed. As you see
in the timeseries above, transactions have been running ahead of
Year-Ago (YA) since Feb. and, similar to closures, we saw a wider gap to YA coming out of April (+59%) than the current July
reading (+30%). On the transactions side, the volume is higher
so that gap between the red and yellow bars above represents 18
facilities, not a huge amount, but not insignificant either (good
for the brokers!).

JULY 2020


https://go.golfnowbusiness.com/pellucid-learn-more

The Pellucid Perspective - July 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - July 2020

TOC
Dangerous Beauty: Is Harder Better?
Another perspective on “charity begins at home”
How is/will COVID impact supply/demand (im)balance?
Neutral national June results, regional “mileage” varies
May Utilization posts nice gain but rounds “rebound” underwhelms
Chicago has a strong golfer base, just needs more motivation/activation
26 Activities; Transacts handily beat Closeds 15-7!
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2020 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2020 - Dangerous Beauty: Is Harder Better?
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2020 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2020 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2020 - Another perspective on “charity begins at home”
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2020 - 6
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2020 - How is/will COVID impact supply/demand (im)balance?
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2020 - 8
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2020 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2020 - Neutral national June results, regional “mileage” varies
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2020 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2020 - May Utilization posts nice gain but rounds “rebound” underwhelms
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2020 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2020 - Chicago has a strong golfer base, just needs more motivation/activation
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2020 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2020 - 26 Activities; Transacts handily beat Closeds 15-7!
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2020 - 17
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