The Pellucid Perspective - September 2020 - 10

WEATHER
IMPACT

AUGUST

National GPH down
slightly, July Utilization
up double digits!

Pac
NW Cst N
/

Pac
NW Cst S
/

ugust weather represented a slight dip as Golf Playable
Hours (GPH) fell 2.1% compared to the same month
Year-Ago (YA). That slightly negative result continued
the erosion of Year-to-Date (YtD) favorability which now rests
at +1%. Beneath that we saw good gains in the Great Lakes/
Ohio Valley regions offset by large declines in the FL South,
Desert West (Phoenix) and Gulf Coast regions. YtD regional
GPH breadth swung to neutral (1:1) with 19 favorable regions
outnumbering 13 unfavorables with 13 in the neutral zone (+/2%). The current GPH Year-End (YE) forecast has leveled off at
+4% after recent ups and downs. Subscribers can see those breakdowns as well as the full-year forecast at the national level by
subscribing to either the Pellucid Publications Membership or
the Nat'l/Reg'l/Mkts Weather Impact Reports.
Played Rounds for July published by Golf Datatech posted
a 2nd consecutive month of double-digit gain providing more
support for the industry's anecdotal reports that we're getting a
sizeable "COVID dividend/bounce". July rounds were +20% and
that blows away the flat GPH results we had previously reported
for the month. For the year that now puts us at a national level
ahead of YA at +3% (the one "lookout" being the fact that it's
comprised of Private being +11% and Public only +1%). The
combination of flat weather and double-digit rounds improvement produced a 10 point Utilization gain, surging to ~63% for
the month. That also carries the YtD Utilization comparison
into (marginally) positive territory vs. YA. Again, subscribers to
our reports have visibility to the Weather Impact and Utilization
Rates for 50 States currently.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, "OK, even for us analytical folks "following the math" (apologies to Dr. Fauci), the
V-shaped recovery for golf, at least in rounds played, can be
officially confirmed. Two months of double-digit gains is a
healthy bounce and, by our calculations, we have recovered all
20M of the Mar-May rounds lost to YA in the Jun-Jul period.
As colleague Stuart Lindsay has pointed out previously though
in published articles, there are two potential "flies in the ointment": 1) Given the losses in ancillary revenue (events/outings, F&B, Mar-May cart losses due to use/occupancy restrictions, pro shop etc.), his back-of-the envelope math suggests
that we'll need an ~11% gain in revenue somewhere along the
line to get dollars back to "even" and 2) Given the more tepid Public sector rounds results YtD (+1%) the path to +11%
revenue offset is steeper while, for Private clubs, the rounds
bounce doesn't translate as directly into revenue for them given

10 The Pellucid Perspective

No
CA Coast
/

Pac
Inland N
/

No
Rck Mtn
/

Pac
Inland S
/

C CA
Valley N
/

C CA
Valley C
/

So
CA Coast
/

No
NV
/

No
Int Mtn
/

So
NV
/

Cen
CA Val So
/

C
Rc

So
Int Mtn
/

Des
SW West
/

Key
>+2% vs. YA
+/- 2% vs. YA
>-2% vs. YA
No arrow = NA

the member dues structure which is fixed vs. variable. Given
the relatively small window of peak season in the northern
climes however, it was critical that we "made hay" in Jun/Jul vs.
waiting for a backloaded bounce. One other thing which may
provide an additional tailwind here in Sep/Oct is the fact that
major college football is either taking a knee or swinging in the
breeze. If we take out competition from college football in the
Fall for much of the country and get any help from the weather
(Aug didn't help at -2% but it's not a critical blow), we could
see an extension of the COVID bounce well into Fall which
we normally don't get. Anyone want to bet on Sep-Oct being
double-digit rounds gains as well?"
n
September 2020

De
SW E
/

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The Pellucid Perspective - September 2020

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