The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 12

WEATHER
IMPACT

SEPTEMBER
Pac
NW Cst N

September GPH lags,
August Utilization
continues to soar!

Pac
Inland N

Pac
Inland S

eptember weather finished similar to August's results as
Golf Playable Hours (GPH) fell 2.3% compared to the
same month Year-Ago (YA). That slightly negative result
marginally eroded the Year-to-Date (YtD) favorability which
continues to sit at +1%. Beneath that we saw continued gains
in the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions offset by declines in the
FL/SE regions, TX and the two coastal CA regions. YtD regional GPH breadth remained neutral (1:1) with 16 favorable
regions outnumbering 12 unfavorables with 17 (now the majority) in the neutral zone (+/- 2%). Looking at weather impact
performance by day-of-week for the YtD period, it's a relatively
balanced weather picture comparing weekdays to weekends but
with Tue-Wed weekparts showing the most weather favorability.
You can get the full picture and details one of three ways:
*
*
*

Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership
Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Report
(Nat'l, 45 regions, 61 markets monthly)
Subscribe to Cognilogic (facility level, web-delivered,
unlimited access, updated daily)

Played Rounds for August published by Golf Datatech posted
a 3rd consecutive month of double-digit gains (wow!) providing continued quantitative support for the industry's anecdotal
reports that we're getting a sizeable "COVID dividend/bounce".
August rounds were +21% and that edges out July for "best
month" honors and makes it two consecutive months of 20%+
growth in "comps". For the year that now puts us at a national
level ahead of YA at +6% and, while Private still outpaces Public
(+13% vs. +5%), looking at the August both sectors registered
20%+ gains. The combination of slightly declining weather and
the 20%+ rounds improvement produced a 12 point Utilization
gain, surging to ~65% for the month. That also carries the YtD
Utilization comparison into solidly positive territory (+3 pts) vs.
YA.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, "The hits just keep on comin'! I
can't tell you how refreshing it is as an industry analyst for nearly
2 decades to see and be able to report on some positive news with
some longevity to it. To all those back in the early 2000s decade
who accused Pellucid of being "industry cynics", hopefully our
coverage of 2020 has proven that we simply seek to quantify and
interpret the set of facts given to us in the data we collect and
reports produced from it. As I pointed out in the Sep OtR, it's
now a given that we'll finish the year up on rounds (we're call-

12 THE PELLUCID PERSPECTIVE

No
Rck Mtn

Pac
NW Cst S

C CA
Valley N
No
CA Coast

C CA
Valley C

So
CA Coast

No
NV

No
Int Mtn

So
NV

Cen
CA Val So

C
Rc

So
Int Mtn

Des
SW West

Key
>+2% vs. YA
+/- 2% vs. YA
>-2% vs. YA
No arrow = NA

ing 4-6% nationally, all facility types) and now the focus shifts to
whether the average US facility can be up enough in rounds to
offset Stuart Lindsay's estimate of the revenue shortfall brought
on by COVID (~11%, see the math in OtR). The even more
encouraging news, which only we can quantify and provide, is
that the rounds surge is completely due to increased interest vs.
favorable weather (the '12 scenario where we saw a 5% increase
in rounds solely attributed to a 6% increase in GPH). So, while
the NGF and others opine in their observations about the favorability (most have chosen to say that we've gotten some assistance
from favorable weather), that's correct for 16 regions but, for 12
others they've actually produced these rounds results in spite of
GPH declines of >2%. We'll let everyone else guess at this stuff
but, for those of you preferring actual quantitative evidence, stay
tuned to this channel. On to October and seeing whether the
September rounds numbers persist or start coming back down
to earth!
n
OCTOBER 2020

De
SW E

https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Pellucid-Publications-Membership-c60126192 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Monthly-National-&-Regional-Key-Market-Tracking-p235240902 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Cognilogic-Facility-Level-Year-End-Report-Monthly-Updates-p235256610

The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020

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