The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 16

MARKET FOCUS

Pittsburgh #24 in new ranking, aided by
better-than-average supply-demand balance
Pittsburgh, PA Core Business
Statistical Area (CBSA)

I

n this monthly section we profile one of the Top 25 US Golf
Markets based on a Pellucid composite score of the golfer
base, the supply level and rounds demand. Within that Top
25 universe, we then rank them based on relative health using
a Pellucid weighted scoring system of 7 variables ranging from
Population Growth to Avg. Facility Utilization. With our 2019
update of the Top 25 we're going to flip the tables and start
from the bottom and work our way up (because we never get to
the bottom of the list before the next update in the top-down
method). For regular followers of this column, you'll notice 2
changes in the map above and noted in the Legend: 1) We're
now distinguishing within Public-Regulation Length Munis
(green symbols) vs. For Profits (blue symbols) as well as adding
in Closed Courses since 2000 (black symbols). This is a new
feature of our recently-released '20 version of the GLMA which
features several enhancements such as these.
In this issue, we'll profile the 24th-ranked market, the Pittsburgh PA Metro CBSA. Billed as one of the upcoming "battleground states", the only battle that we're currently interested in
is the one for recreational time and money and which we're currently winning in the Steel City based on the Golf Datatech JulAug rounds reports which show Pittsburgh posting gains over
year ago of 34% and 25% respectively (YtD figures currently
aren't being published at market level).
By rounds demand (one of our 3 selection criteria for initial
inclusion in the Top 25 list), Pittsburgh punches way above its
composite ranking weight coming in 14th in rounds (vs. 24th
composite) among US markets with facility-reported annual demand of just under 4M rounds (that's the through-the-turnstiles
tally which counts both local and tourist play). Looking at the
golf consumer base, we see that Pittsburgh is home to a healthy
local golfer base of ~150K golfers (this is local, resident population only). That golfer base is served by a moderate supply base
of 150 18-hole equivalent (EHE) facilities producing an average
ratio of ~1K local resident golfers per EHE, a level 28% lower
than the national average.
The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's
five access/value/usage segments shows a relatively balanced attack with slight biases to the Learning & Practice (119 index)
segment vs. the national distribution. The split between Private/
Public is 31%/69% which, is slightly tilted to Private vs. the national average of 28%/72%. The balance between Value-added
golf supply (Private & Public Premium) vs. Value golf (Public Value, Price and Learning & Practice) is 53%/47% skewing moderately to Value-added golf vs. the national average of
47%/53%. Remember also that we establish the Premium/Val-

16 THE PELLUCID PERSPECTIVE

Private

PubPubPremium Premium
FPROF
MUNI

PubValue
FPROF

PubValue
MUNI

PubPrice
FPROF

PubPrice
MUNI

Learning
&
Practice

Pittsburgh, PA
Tot US
Golfer Base
141.1 21,065
- Est. # of Golfers (Ks)
150 16,034
- # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities
941 1,314
- Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv.

Supply Mix
Tot. Holes
- Private
- Pub-Prem
- Pub-Val
- Pub-Price
- Learn & Prac

2,367
31%
22%
21%
16%
10%

29%
25%
23%
15%
8%

6%
-0%

11%
-7%

-6%

-17%

3,918,570
26.1
38%

26.5
42%

Supply/Demand Balance
- '00-'19 Cume Supply Growth/Decline
- '00-'19 Cume Rds Demand Growth/
Decline+
- '00-'19 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution
(-)/Absorption (+) Level*+
Av. Facility Throughput & Efficiency
Tot. Facility-reported Rounds
- Avg. Ann Rds Velocity (Ks, per EHE)
- %Utilization Rate

Closed

Index
vs. US

72

106
90
93
106
119

99
91

* Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply

Above average level vs. US (Index >105)
Average level vs. US (Index 95-104)
Below average level vs. US (Index <95)

OCTOBER 2020



The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020

TOC
Pandemic creates an unusual, upward pricing dilemma
How high is up? Based on current information, no one really knows
Are we currently selling golf below cost (yes); why?
September GPH slight down, current dynamics will absorb that
Aug Utilization again up double-digits, weather not a factor in current surge!
Pittsburgh #24 in new ranking, aided by better-than-average supply-demand balance
16 Activities; Transacts & For Sales comprise bulk of activity
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - Pandemic creates an unusual, upward pricing dilemma
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 5
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - How high is up? Based on current information, no one really knows
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 8
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - Are we currently selling golf below cost (yes); why?
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - September GPH slight down, current dynamics will absorb that
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - Aug Utilization again up double-digits, weather not a factor in current surge!
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - Pittsburgh #24 in new ranking, aided by better-than-average supply-demand balance
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 17
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 16 Activities; Transacts & For Sales comprise bulk of activity
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 19
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