The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 17

ue/Price segments by individual market so that's factoring in differences in cost of living/cost of golf as we cross markets (unlike
NGF where Manhattan NY has the same price segmentation as
Manhattan KS, go figure). Within Public-Regulation golf, the
distribution between Premium/Value/Price is 38%/36%/27%
which is skewed to Public-Premium (at the expense of PublicValue) vs. the national picture of 31%/47%/23%.
Using our new methodology for calculating Supply/Demand
equilibrium and how the picture has changed from '00-'19 based
on rounds demand change vs. supply change, you can see in the
table above that Supply expanded only 6% over that period,
much lower than the national average of 11% (a Compound Annual Change Rate (CACR) of roughly
0.6%). On the facility-reported rounds
demand side of the equilibrium equation, that supply expansion is juxtaposed to flat rounds demand over the
'00-'19 period (a good outcome when
compared to the -7% US result). The
confluence of these two factors results
in the cumulative supply dilution resting at -6% or considerably better than
the national benchmark of -17%. This
suggests that a modest decline of ~9 facilities could return Pittsburgh to its '20
equilibrium level.
Looking at the productivity of the
average facility using our proprietary
velocity measure, they produce just over
26K rounds per year which is right on
the national average. Applying our
industry-exclusive Utilization measure
(played rounds/capacity rounds), we see
that after weather adjustment the market fares slightly worse at 38% Utilization Rate which is slightly under the
national average (42%).
In summary, on the plus side of the
ledger Pittsburgh benefits from having avoided the rounds declines of the
past 20 years while simultaneously constraining supply expansion (aided by
fairly healthy supply "takeout", see all
the black dots in the above map for reference). We also see relatively good balance in the mix of that supply so they've
also avoided the overbuild of premium,
penal, pristine golf during the NGF era.
On the negative side of the ledger, Pittsburgh could use a larger golfer base and
their throughput for the average facility
could be increased. Maybe some of the
concepts we've discussed over the years
of tracking customers through their PoS
systems, focusing on differential messaging (newcomers invite back, regulars
WWW.PELLUCIDCORP.COM

acknowledge, defectors recognize they're "missing" and incent
to return etc.) could help here. Overall though, a pretty good
scorecard for Pittsburgh and it seems like rounds demand currently is on a roll, over and above the national results. Now,
about those upcoming elections...
If you'd like more detailed market profiling on any US geography, you can order a Golf Local Market Analysis specific
to that location or market. If you'd like a broader overview
of the largest and strongest US golf markets you can order
the '19 update of Pellucid's Top 25 US Golf Markets Health
Scorecard and be better informed with rigorous, broad independent facts.
n

THE PELLUCID PERSPECTIVE

17


https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/GLMA-Data-workbook-p235238751 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Top-25-US-Golf-Markets-Scorecard-c60114161 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Top-25-US-Golf-Markets-Scorecard-c60114161 https://www.kempersports.com/ http://WWW.PELLUCIDCORP.COM

The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020

TOC
Pandemic creates an unusual, upward pricing dilemma
How high is up? Based on current information, no one really knows
Are we currently selling golf below cost (yes); why?
September GPH slight down, current dynamics will absorb that
Aug Utilization again up double-digits, weather not a factor in current surge!
Pittsburgh #24 in new ranking, aided by better-than-average supply-demand balance
16 Activities; Transacts & For Sales comprise bulk of activity
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - Pandemic creates an unusual, upward pricing dilemma
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 5
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - How high is up? Based on current information, no one really knows
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 8
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - Are we currently selling golf below cost (yes); why?
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - September GPH slight down, current dynamics will absorb that
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - Aug Utilization again up double-digits, weather not a factor in current surge!
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - Pittsburgh #24 in new ranking, aided by better-than-average supply-demand balance
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 17
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 16 Activities; Transacts & For Sales comprise bulk of activity
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 19
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