The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 18

COMINGS
& GOINGS

Activity Continues at "Trickle" Pace...
Or They've Just Gone Underground

F

or the 3rd consecutive month, the number of activities we were able to glean from the public domain has
dropped from a previous level of 25-30 activities per
month to 10-20. We'll take that as a good sign if you're a current owner/operator, a neutral sign if you're a broker or dependent on transaction volume and a negative for market health
and the industry as a whole which still needs to shed supply at
a faster pace than the historical 0.5% per annum.
The "supply increase drip" continues but, for this month, it's
all re-opens headlined by a reversal on the Yale Course closure
(it needs some work though after being out to pasture for over 3
months) along with a re-opening of a short course on the Myrtle
Beach Airport property that's all about fun ("Golf doesn't have
to be so serious. This is where you can have a lot of fun with
it, but still challenge you a little bit" (PGA Professional Chip
Smith of operating company Atlantic Golf Management)).
Across the 16 reported activities Transactions and For Sales
(new addition this month) lead the way with 10. Most of
them are of the relatively routine "we think there's something

special here and we can turn it around" variety while, on the
municipal side, we had a one up (Meridian ID decides to
buy vs. attempt a land swap to save a course) and one down
(Millbury MA takes a pass on spending $3.1M for a 9 hole
(that's not a typo) course which will now go to a developer;
can you say "city dodged a bullet?"). Only two courses made
the bye-bye list, one however in HI nestled in the foothills of
the Ko'olau mountains owned by First Presbyterian Church;
they're looking for a "higher purpose" for the land in the wake
of the closing [two puns in one sentence, do we get bonus
points for that?).
We still think there will be a higher-than-average closure
rate post-season due to COVID and the disparity between
healthy rounds this year but not being enough in some number of cases to cover the associated revenue shortfall due to
events, F&B, leagues etc. As you know however, there isn't any
great history info for Q4 closures so this is as much educated
speculation as anything else. We'll bring you all the ones that
hit the radar as they become published in the off-season. n

Golf's landscape changes
Event

Course

Type/Holes

Summary

Yale Golf Course Hartford & New
Haven CT

Priv/18

Tres Rios

Phoenix
(Prescott) AZ

Pub/18

The Aero Club

Myrtle BeachFlorence SC

L&P/9

Call this a "Lazarus act", trustees (with the
prodding of (well-connected) alumni) decide that
a course of this legacy can't go to seed. Opened
a limited number of holes in overall marginal
condition this Fall, much to the delight of playing
fans who acknowledge "there's still considerable
work to be done here."
Closed when C-Bon Int'l resigned its management
agreement due to losses, Southwest Golf
Management steps into the breach to re-open
around Thanksgiving, high hopes and dreams for
a turnaround...
Atlantic Golf Management (Chip Smith) leading
re-opening. Land is restricted for use by adjacent
Myrtle Beach Int'l(?) Airport so no other takers to
do anything with it. "Since we can't do anything
else with it, let's have another go at it" (what could
possibly go wrong with that plan?)

Open/Re-open

Closed

DMA

Fianna Hills CC Ft. Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers AR

Priv/18

Deal to sell fell through due to bickering, current
owner now proposing to subdivide it and offer parcels to existing homeowners (of which he is one);
seems like the buyer tried to use due diligence to
lower price, bluff called

Ko'olau GC

Pub/18

Owned by First Presbyterian Church, COVID was
"the killer" and church looking for alternate uses
for the land. I've played this course when stationed
at MCAS Kaneohe, too bad, even God couldn't save
it...

18 THE PELLUCID PERSPECTIVE

Honolulu HI

OCTOBER 2020



The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020

TOC
Pandemic creates an unusual, upward pricing dilemma
How high is up? Based on current information, no one really knows
Are we currently selling golf below cost (yes); why?
September GPH slight down, current dynamics will absorb that
Aug Utilization again up double-digits, weather not a factor in current surge!
Pittsburgh #24 in new ranking, aided by better-than-average supply-demand balance
16 Activities; Transacts & For Sales comprise bulk of activity
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - Pandemic creates an unusual, upward pricing dilemma
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 5
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - How high is up? Based on current information, no one really knows
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 8
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - Are we currently selling golf below cost (yes); why?
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - September GPH slight down, current dynamics will absorb that
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - Aug Utilization again up double-digits, weather not a factor in current surge!
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - Pittsburgh #24 in new ranking, aided by better-than-average supply-demand balance
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 17
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 16 Activities; Transacts & For Sales comprise bulk of activity
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2020 - 19
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