The Pellucid Perspective - November 2020 - 6

INDUSTRY
TRENDS

ble of the reinvestments necessary to maintain their infrastruc- have some credible prospect for being 7 years to reverse trend,
tures in a manner conducive of attracting paying customers over and in order to rise to the level of a " credible prospect " the inthe long run.Â Those municipal courses in the nation that were dustry would have to make a convincing case that it had a serimarginal prior to COVID-19 aren't going to survive once the ous plan to parlay COVID-19's bounty into sustainable gains.
COVID-19 party returns their tee sheets to some semblance
After ignoring the role played by municipal governments in
of normality. Whatever appetite remained to subsidize their golf 's rise to 30 million plus adherents, can the game reverse
operations pre COVID will be totally sated post COVID.Â
its course of ingratitude and adopt a course of appreciation in
Twenty-two percent (22%) of the nation's golf stock is held time to parlay a newfound 26% bounty into a narrative capable
by municipal governments. Roughly 40% of the game's annual of preserving municipal stock in an era of squeezed budgets?
rounds are played on those courses, and more than 90% of the Of course not. Narratives so firmly ensconced don't shift overgame's growth programs are conducted on those
night but shift they can when leaders get down to
courses. It's going to be mighty tough to grow the
the hard work of critically thinking about how to
game when the places where the industry has trareframe the municipal attraction in terms not of
ditionally grown it are either gone or in distress.
the old public service paradigm that undergirded
In the short run certain daily fee and nonits value proposition for so many decades, but
equity clubs may benefit from newfound market
rather in terms of a more direct financial attracshare in a market artificially stimulated by COtion better suited to current circumstance.
VID-19, but once the game is forced to again
Absent these two long running real estate and
compete with other recreational and entertainmunicipal subsidies, golf never would have grown
ment amenities, that benefit will begin to fade,
to 30 million plus adherents.Â Absent either
leaving those markets bereft of the inexpensive
their restoration or the discovery of other sugpublic stock that created the daily fee market and
ar daddies to grow the game on someone else's
fed its ranks for decades.
dime, it's hard to see how the game does any betThe golf industry likes to talk the market
ter than keep a small portion of its COVID-19
economy talk, but it tends to overlook the chapter
bounty in a post COVID world unless it radically
on fungibility. Factories can cut production, lay
adjusts its thinking.Â Â
off employees, and take a number of steps short
No one sees another " sugar daddy " on the horiof closure. Small businesses like restaurants can
zon. And few see municipalities or real estate declose their doors and be replaced in very short
velopers rediscovering the value of golf just because
order when markets pick back up; indeed, that's
golf is up 26% while other forms of recreation and
a pretty good explanation of much of how main
entertainment are temporarily curtailed. What
street America operates. But golf courses? There
about radically adjusted thinking? Any sign of
Roughly 40% of the
are no intermediary steps in a downturn, and
something other than the same stale dissertations
game's annual rounds
there is no easy ingress and egress. Particularly
about customer service, technology, and dumbing
are played on [muni]
in urban America, where most of the golfers are,
down a difficult game? Not yet, but necessity is
courses, and more than
once a golf course closes its doors, it's gone, never
the mother of invention. And if the last 15 years
90% of the game's
growth programs are
to be seen again. As for planning and constructhave taught the industry anything it is that the
conducted on those
ing new courses when the market goes back up as
strategies it employed to rekindle growth didn't
courses.
it has in the last 7 months? That's a multi-year
work. Whether they failed due to circumstances
process that for the most part is onerously exbeyond the game's ability to control or failed due
pensive for any golf project save the kind of spectacular multi- to lack of imagination is an open question. But there is little
course resort represented by a Bandon Dunes. And those don't doubt that they failed in part due to having turned a blind eye to
so much grow the game as provide a great golf vacation for the the two sources of ample subsidy that contributed to past success.
most avid and experienced golfers among us.
Sic transit ( " thus passes " for those out there not schooled in
As for that other great overlooked source of subsidy, suffice Latin) golf ? Not so fast. COVID-19 did teach us something
it to say that while not entirely dead, developers are looking about the enduring allure of the game, why it has endured all
much more to other kinds of green space to sell their homes, sorts of disruptions and dislocations, outlasted all sorts of comtownhomes, and condominiums than they are looking to golf petitors and fads, expanded its reach throughout the world, and
- varieties more in tune with the pre-Boomer generations that always bobbed back to the top. There's something of eternal
never took to golf like their elders. The Wall Street Journal did value to a walk in nature with family and friends that can be
a huge story earlier this year about the trend and used examples enjoyed from youth to dotage while polishing a set of skills that
from California's golf rich Coachella Valley to sustain it. And can never really be perfected and practicing a culture based on
that publication was hardly alone. Indeed, the story has been ancient verities. It's called golf. And even the most ungrateful
done to death in recent years.
of trust fund babies can't spoil that. But are they up to the hard
Can 7 months of increased interest in the game cause devel- work of taking advantage? If past is prologue, not likely. If past
n
opers to reverse course? Of course not. Seven months has to is instructive, yes.

6 THE PELLUCID PERSPECTIVE

NOVEMBER 2020

The Pellucid Perspective - November 2020

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