The Pellucid Perspective - December 2020 - 10

WEATHER
IMPACT

NOVEMBER

November GPH,
October Utilization
crazy good!

Pac
NW Cst N
Pac
Inland N

Pac
Inland S

here's so much " green " on this month's Weather Impact
map and accompanying tables that it must be Christmas! November weather was stellar as Golf Playable
Hours (GPH) were up 31% compared to the same month YearAgo (YA). That result single-handedly raised the Year-to-Date
(YtD) by a point, now resting at +2% YtD. Subscribers to either the Pellucid Publications Membership or the Geographic
Weather Impact report get the 45 regional breakdowns, the 61
markets figures, the day-of-week weather impact and the YearEnd National GPH forecast figure as well as our full commentary on the results every month. You can get that full picture
monthly one of three ways:
*
*
*

C CA
Valley N
No
CA Coast

C CA
Valley C

ubscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership
S
Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Report
(Nat'l, 45 regions, 61 markets monthly)
Subscribe to Cognilogic (facility level, web-delivered,
unlimited access, updated daily)

Played Rounds for October published by Golf Datatech
posted a 5th consecutive month of double-digit gains (and accelerating monthly, wow!) proving that golf continues to benefit from the " COVID dividend/bounce " and, as long as other
alternatives remain banned, it's the gift that keeps on giving for
golf. October rounds were +32% and that edges out September
for " best month " honors and makes it four consecutive months
of 20%+ growth in " comps " . The combination of October's
flat weather and the 30%+ rounds improvement produced a 16
point Utilization gain, surging to ~68% for the month.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, " Chicago weather was a harbinger for the very temperate and widespread favorability we experienced in November. There was " comfortable golf " to be played
over the Thanksgiving holiday which was relatively late in the
month this year and that usually says, " Good times! " I had to
go back and see if this November beat the last incredibly balmy
November which happened in '12 (the year that winter forgot)
and, while Mother Nature knocked the cover off GPH in '20,
we fell slightly short of the recent history (since '20) record in
2012. We beat the 10-yr average by 8% but fell short of '12's
high-water mark by ~10% just for reference points. All we can
do at this point as an industry is just ride this favorability as far
and as high as it will take us. The fact that Utilization is gaining means that, unlike '12, we're actually adding (or benefitting
from) demand " topspin " to the weather which would suggest to
me that we should see another 30%+ rounds gain in November

10 The Pellucid Perspective

No
Rck Mtn

Pac
NW Cst S

So
CA Coast

No
NV

No
Int Mtn

So
NV

Cen
CA Val So

C
Rc

So
Int Mtn

Des
SW West

Key
>+2% vs. YA
+/- 2% vs. YA
>-2% vs. YA
No arrow = NA

when Golf Datatech releases those figures later this month. As
I outlined in the November OtR, Utilization actually declined
in '12 by a point to ~52% while the '20 phenomenon is showing
that we could actually be up in Utilization by 5+ points by YE
illustrating that the industry (or the pandemic) is having success
this year well beyond whatever weather hands us. To show how
prevalent that is, in the Market-level report you'll see that, of
our 61 Markets/States, 40 are showing Utilization gains against
only 3 with declines (Wash DC, Vegas, HI (any guesses there?)
so pretty much everyone is getting in on the increased demand
act. This will make the upcoming State of the Industry (virtual)
presentation much more interesting and fun this year. With 16
holes played well under par this year, let's see if we can't finish
birdie-birdie as we see what November & December rounds do
against the final variable of December weather. "
n
December 2020

De
SW E

https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Pellucid-Publications-Membership-c60126192 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Monthly-National-&-Regional-Key-Market-Tracking-p235240902 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Cognilogic-Facility-Level-Year-End-Report-Monthly-Updates-p235256610

The Pellucid Perspective - December 2020

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