The Pellucid Perspective - January 2021 - 10

WEATHER
IMPACT

DECEMBER

December GPH
" gives back " 6%,
Year finishes +2%

Pac
NW Cst N
Pac
Inland N

Pac
Inland S

A

fter a phenomenal November, odds were that December would disappoint which came true with Golf
Playable Hours (GPH) declining 6% compared to the
same month Year-Ago (YA). That result didn't much " dent "
the Year-to-Date (YtD) figure which finished the year at +2%
YtD (in our neutral zone classification). YtD regional GPH
breadth finished in the " favorable " column (2:1) with 18 favorable regions outnumbering 9 unfavorables with 18 in the
neutral zone (+/- 2%). Subscribers to either the Pellucid Publications Membership or the Geographic Weather Impact report get the 45 regional breakdowns, the 61 markets figures,
the day-of-week weather impact and the Year-End National
GPH forecast figure as well as our full commentary on the
results every month. You can get that full picture monthly one
of three ways:
*
*
*

Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership
Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Report
(Nat'l, 45 regions, 61 markets monthly)
Subscribe to Cognilogic (facility level, web-delivered,
unlimited access, updated daily)

Played Rounds for November published by Golf Datatech
posted a 6th consecutive month of double-digit gains (and
continued month-to-month acceleration in rate, wow!) proving that golf continues to benefit from the " COVID dividend/
bounce " and, as long as other alternatives remain banned, it's the
gift that keeps on giving for golf. November rounds were +57%
and that, again, edges out the previous month for " best month "
honors and makes it five consecutive months of 20%+ growth
in " comps " .
Jim Koppenhaver comments, " The slight downer in GPH for
December likely won't have much of an impact on the incredible year's performance and there are no indicators which suggest that rounds demand will follow it into negative territory
for the month given that nothing else in the macro situation has
changed. As you'll hear in the State of the Industry, we're projecting that rounds will threaten 500M for the year and that will
have occurred with only marginal positive weather support at
the national level and for most regions (in fact, some of our 45
weather-based regions have posted GPH declines and they're
still seeing 10%+ demand increases). For the first time in the
15 years since we started quantifying weather impact, rounds
demand and GPH/Capacity Rounds have become " uncoupled "

10 THE PELLUCID PERSPECTIVE

No
Rck Mtn

Pac
NW Cst S

C CA
Valley N
No
CA Coast

C CA
Valley C

So
CA Coast

No
NV

No
Int Mtn

So
NV

Cen
CA Val So

C
Rc

So
Int Mtn

Des
SW West

Key
>+2% vs. YA
+/- 2% vs. YA
>-2% vs. YA
No arrow = NA

driven (pretty much exclusively from our vantage point) by COVID and the absence of most other recreational sports and a
significant reduction in spectator sports alternatives. The key
questions for '21 will be " How long will the current favorable
environment last? " and " How much of the golf " halo " will we be
able to retain when the US transitions to the new normal? " All
questions which we'll attempt to attack in...our '20 State of the
Industry discussion (sorry for the repetition but it's true). Wishing you a happy, healthy and prosperous New Year and success
in navigating the landscape as it changes (with facts and resulting good reasoning, of course) in '21. We'll also be announcing soon an initiative for individual facilities, local markets and
industry-level performance tracking and benchmarking starting
in Q1; stay tuned and I hope you'll participate if you're a facility
owner/operator or stakeholder in golf operations. "
n
JANUARY 2021

De
SW E

https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Pellucid-Publications-Membership-c60126192 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Monthly-National-&-Regional-Key-Market-Tracking-p235240902 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Cognilogic-Facility-Level-Year-End-Report-Monthly-Updates-p235256610

The Pellucid Perspective - January 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - January 2021