The Pellucid Perspective - January 2021 - 2
CONFESSIONS OF A
GOLF ANALYST
2020 - The Year I Was Wrong
(but 2021 may yet prove me right)
By Jim Koppenhaver
F
or those of you who know me, you know the 3 hardest
words in the English language for me to utter are " I was
wrong " (for those of you who don't know me, just ask my
wife). I discuss, debate and argue in most every instance on the
basis of facts and will rarely concede simply on a " preponderance of assumptions " which, today, is often passed off as absolute
truth. With that as preamble, here is my confession on what I
got wrong in my multi-year assertions prior to 2020 regarding
the most-likely path and pace to supply/demand " stabilization " .
Our veteran State of the Industry (SoI) attendees will likely recognize below my adamant assertion of the past 3-5 years
in closing the discussion that I'm willing to admit, after 2020,
was incorrect: " If I were you, as an owner/operator, if you're
on the bubble financially, I'd look for an exit because this isn't
going away soon. " The evidence that supported my claim was
" clear and irrefutable " (Kevin Bacon, A Few Good Men) prior
to '20, to wit:
*
Rounds demand was declining ~1% per annum over a
2 THE PELLUCID PERSPECTIVE
*
*
15+ year period
Supply contraction was happening at a per annum rate
of ~1% for 10+ yrs
Against the 2000 supply/demand equilibrium level, this
placed us 5-10% oversupplied in any given year with
the gap growing, from the intersection of the above two
factors, at an annual rate of 2% per year (excluding the
annual ups and downs of weather impact which, over
a 10-year horizon gravitate to the mean (i.e. minimal
impact)
Here's last year's SoI supply/demand equilibrium " tale of the
tape " (see graphic below):
As you can see in the bullet points, so confident was I that
" pigs wouldn't fly " I calculated out how much more demand
we'd need over time if we just wanted to absorb the supply
in place rather than the faster contraction that I continued to
advocate (+32M rounds or $464M rounds in the achievement
year when/if we ever saw it). And then the world changed in
JANUARY 2021
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2021
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - January 2021
TOC
2020 - The Year I Was Wrong (but 2021 may yet prove me right)
State of the Industry Preview = Good News Sustainability Takes on New Meaning
December GPH “gives back” 6%, Year finishes +2%
Nov Utilization up double-digits (again), Year-to-Date pushes 60% mark!
Cincinnati occupies #20 in new ranking, nicely balanced scorecard overall
Transactions continue to lead; OH well-represented this month
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2021 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2021 - 2020 - The Year I Was Wrong (but 2021 may yet prove me right)
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2021 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2021 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2021 - 5
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2021 - 6
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2021 - State of the Industry Preview = Good News Sustainability Takes on New Meaning
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2021 - 8
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2021 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2021 - December GPH “gives back” 6%, Year finishes +2%
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2021 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2021 - Nov Utilization up double-digits (again), Year-to-Date pushes 60% mark!
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2021 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2021 - Cincinnati occupies #20 in new ranking, nicely balanced scorecard overall
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2021 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2021 - Transactions continue to lead; OH well-represented this month
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2021 - 17
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2021 - 18
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