The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 10

WEATHER
IMPACT

JANUARY

January GPH a
" cold shoulder "
to start the year

Pac
NW Cst N
Pac
Inland N

Pac
Inland S

J

anuary appears poised to test the strength of consumer
demand as we played into a significant weather headwind
nationally with Golf Playable Hours (GPH) declining
17% compared to the same month Year-Ago (YA). That result
is also our Year-to-Date figure with only one month in the
books for '21. YtD regional GPH breadth was also widely negative (meaning many shared the " pain " ) at 1:4 with 5 favorable
regions yielding to 21 unfavorables, none in the neutral zone
(+/- 2%) and the remaining 19 regions being out-of-season.
Subscribers to either the Pellucid Publications Membership
or the Geographic Weather Impact report get the 45 regional
breakdowns, the 61 markets figures, the day-of-week weather
impact and the Year-End National GPH forecast figure as well
as our full commentary on the results every month. You can
get that full picture monthly one of three ways:
*
*
*

Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership
Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Report
(Nat'l, 45 regions, 61 markets monthly)
Subscribe to Cognilogic (facility level, web-delivered,
unlimited access, updated daily)

Played Rounds for December published by Golf Datatech
posted a 7th consecutive month of double-digit gains (the
month-to-month acceleration rate streak was broken though)
powering an amazing +14% gain for the full year vs. '19. Private
outpaced Public (+20% vs. +12%) but that was primarily driven
by Private not suffering quite as much in the early months of
the lockdowns with Public fully participating in the latter half
of the year. That continued December rounds demand strength
juxtaposed to the 6% GPH decline to post a 6 point Utilization gain for the month and topping off a near-60% Utilization
achievement for the full year.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, " December provided another
datapoint that the increased demand for golf in our " restricted
recreation " world doesn't even pause for unfavorable weather although the 37% rounds increase likely would have been higher
had it not been for that headwind. January will prove another
interesting test case for demand strength as we'll need at least
a 17% increase to offset the unfavorable weather and keep our
monthly Utilization winning streak alive. The average monthly
gain for the past 3 months has been >25% so, right now, it seems
like a better-than-even odds bet that January could rise to the
occasion. The '20 State of the Industry (SoI) has more details
on the market breakdowns, the long-range trends and the '21

10 THE PELLUCID PERSPECTIVE

No
Rck Mtn

Pac
NW Cst S

C CA
Valley N
No
CA Coast

C CA
Valley C

So
CA Coast

No
NV

No
Int Mtn

So
NV

Cen
CA Val So

C
Rc

So
Int Mtn

Des
SW West

Key
>+2% vs. YA
+/- 2% vs. YA
>-2% vs. YA
No arrow = NA

GPH forecast at the national level and 45 regions which can be
purchased here [hotlink to SoI $249 version]. In the first half of
'21 we'll be watching the weather to likely see how much of the
anticipated positive " comps " in rounds will be due to Mother
Nature (vs. pure golfer demand) and, in the 2nd half I anticipate that we'll be watching weather to see how much of pretty
big negative " comps " can be explained to weather vs. the return
of other recreational activities and the likely-unbeatable rounds
figures we posted in '20 (due to COVID restrictions, not favorable weather). As Stuart has always asserted, " you cannot have
an intelligent conversation about golf industry performance
without incorporating weather " ! "
n
FEBRUARY 2021

De
SW E


https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Pellucid-Publications-Membership-c60126192 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Monthly-National-&-Regional-Key-Market-Tracking-p235240902 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Cognilogic-Facility-Level-Year-End-Report-Monthly-Updates-p235256610

The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021

TOC
Retain half the gain in ‘21; a realistic national industry rallying cry
Applying Kentucky Windage to distance debate, betting and 2020’s performance
January GPH gives a cold shoulder, lots of golf left to play though
Dec Utilization up on continued rounds strength, finishes the year ~60%!
Tampa weighs in at #20 in new ranking, can’t bring ourselves to call it “Cham-pa”...
Only 5 Activities but some interesting “story situations”
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - Retain half the gain in ‘21; a realistic national industry rallying cry
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 5
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - Applying Kentucky Windage to distance debate, betting and 2020’s performance
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 8
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - January GPH gives a cold shoulder, lots of golf left to play though
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - Dec Utilization up on continued rounds strength, finishes the year ~60%!
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - Tampa weighs in at #20 in new ranking, can’t bring ourselves to call it “Cham-pa”...
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - Only 5 Activities but some interesting “story situations”
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 17
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