The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 2

PHOTO BY MANU SCHWENDENER / UNSPLASH

OUR '21
CRYSTAL BALL

Retain Half the Gain in '21: Not exceptionally
aspirational but likely realistic
By Jim Koppenhaver

A

few years back the trendy idea in running your business
(and your life) was to dream up and aspire to BHAG
(Big, Hairy, Audacious Goals). " Go big or go home, "
blah, blah, blah. If I took that approach to the $64,000 question I get asked weekly as a golf analyst, " What will happen to
golfers, rounds and revenue in '21? " , I'd be inclined to say " We
should aspire to hold the '20 rounds and golfer figures " (and
who knows what on Revenue since we were missing that critical variable in '20...). Being an analyst, by trade and by nature,
I can't bring myself to live in that incredibly unlikely world so
I'm going to create my own " stretch goal " for the industry as
my rallying cry for the balance of this year: " Retain half the
gain in '21 " . It's not very catchy and likely won't get picked
up by any of the industry media or trade associations but I'll
outline here why I think it would still be a good outcome for
the industry. I'm also hoping that we'll be able to accurately
measure all 3 of the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) down
to major market level come this time in '22.
Let's start with the metric that we have some confidence in

2 THE PELLUCID PERSPECTIVE

at the national level for '20, rounds played. Pellucid's year-end
" call " , projected off the Golf Datatech Dec YE % figures at the
national level, was 493.5M or +60M vs. '19 (+14% for those of
you who think in percents). Stop to think about the magnitude of that in the face of the long-term demand trend for golf
which was ~-1% annual or 4-5M down. I had an interesting
email exchange this week with the CEO of one of the major equipment companies and he commented, " Did you ever
think we'd be trying to figure out the math and golfer composition behind a 60M annual rounds increase? " Too funny, my
answer was " Not in my wildest dreams. " But here we are and
the two salient questions are " How much of that increment
can be replicated in '21? " and " How is it likely to flow in during the year? " At the end of the State of the Industry (SoI),
one of the participants commented that we're likely going to
get whipsawed in '21 looking at the comps to '20 and I believe
he's right. That will all net out to wherever we land by year
end but the emotional journey through the quarters is going
to be a roller coaster. Below is my completely unscientific but
FEBRUARY 2021



The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021

TOC
Retain half the gain in ‘21; a realistic national industry rallying cry
Applying Kentucky Windage to distance debate, betting and 2020’s performance
January GPH gives a cold shoulder, lots of golf left to play though
Dec Utilization up on continued rounds strength, finishes the year ~60%!
Tampa weighs in at #20 in new ranking, can’t bring ourselves to call it “Cham-pa”...
Only 5 Activities but some interesting “story situations”
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - Retain half the gain in ‘21; a realistic national industry rallying cry
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 5
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - Applying Kentucky Windage to distance debate, betting and 2020’s performance
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 8
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - January GPH gives a cold shoulder, lots of golf left to play though
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - Dec Utilization up on continued rounds strength, finishes the year ~60%!
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - Tampa weighs in at #20 in new ranking, can’t bring ourselves to call it “Cham-pa”...
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - Only 5 Activities but some interesting “story situations”
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 17
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https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201704
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https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201611
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https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201609
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https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201411
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https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201104
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201103
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pellucid/perspective_201102
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