The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 4

OUR '21
CRYSTAL BALL

professionally-informed view of how I think the year will play
out for rounds comparisons:
Rds %
Chng vs.
'20

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Moderately up

Way up

Way down

Mo' way
down

The above is making an assumption that life begins to
return to " normal " as it relates to recreation, entertainment,
sporting & spectator events in July at the beginning of Q3 (my
Mom always gives me a hard time about the fact that " normal

4 The Pellucid Perspective

people " don't think in calendar quarters). I'm also assuming
that normalcy does nothing but accelerate into Q4 and beyond and my anticipation is that the sports and activities we
" took from " in 2nd half '20 will be of heightened interest to the
general population as well as those activities will be actively
" wooing " those bodies and eyeballs back. As such I anticipate
that the industry and the trade media will be euphoric in the
1st half anticipating our tree continuing to grow to the sky
followed by manic depression starting in Q3 as the comps turn
ugly in double-digit form.
Turning my attention to the golfer metric, we're anxiously
awaiting the results of the '20 consumer survey via our partner the National Sporting Goods Association (NSGA) but Stuart and my
back-of-the-envelope math from the
handful of client courses where we
can see the changes in the customer
count for " new " vs. " retained " would
suggest that we picked up 7-figures
in the golfer base which, again, would
be an unprecedented and unexpected
windfall given similar trends in the
post-Pellucid era (when we entered
the scene in '00 and started asking
sound questions about the provenance
of both the golfer and rounds counts
historically). For perspective, since
'00, the largest annual increase in the
golfer base was ~500K in '08 vs. '07
and in only 2 years since '00 have we
seen any increase in the golfer base according to Pellucid's calculations off
the annual NSGA survey data. Our
calculations suggest that we may have
picked up 3-4M new golfers due to
what I'm coining as the COVIdend
(Stuart doesn't like it but I'm sticking
to my play on words). If that comes to
pass, we have both a massive opportunity (keeping them in the franchise in
'21) as well as challenge (making them
feel at home in the golf environment
and helping them rapidly attain a skill
level where it's enjoyable). In the SoI
we outline our hypothesis on where
those 60M incremental rounds came
from, spread across the three most
probably sources: 1) existing golfers
playing at a higher frequency 2) lapsed
golfers returning to the game and 3)
novice golfers (never played previously). I'm not going to go into the math
and assumptions here because I don't
have the space and I'd prefer that you
buy the report for that and 61 other
charts containing similar " nuggets " of
February 2021


https://www.kempersports.com/ https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Best-Price-State-of-the-Industry-Presentation-p235256603

The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021

TOC
Retain half the gain in ‘21; a realistic national industry rallying cry
Applying Kentucky Windage to distance debate, betting and 2020’s performance
January GPH gives a cold shoulder, lots of golf left to play though
Dec Utilization up on continued rounds strength, finishes the year ~60%!
Tampa weighs in at #20 in new ranking, can’t bring ourselves to call it “Cham-pa”...
Only 5 Activities but some interesting “story situations”
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - Retain half the gain in ‘21; a realistic national industry rallying cry
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 5
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - Applying Kentucky Windage to distance debate, betting and 2020’s performance
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 8
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - January GPH gives a cold shoulder, lots of golf left to play though
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - Dec Utilization up on continued rounds strength, finishes the year ~60%!
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - Tampa weighs in at #20 in new ranking, can’t bring ourselves to call it “Cham-pa”...
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - Only 5 Activities but some interesting “story situations”
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 17
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