The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 5

For perspective, since '00, the largest annual increase in the golfer base was ~500K in '08 vs. '07
and in only 2 years since '00 have we seen any
increase in the golfer base according to Pellucid's
calculations off the annual NSGA survey data.

data, math and insights. Applying my axiom of " retain half
the gain " , let's say we picked up 3M golfers in '20, the goal
would be to keep half of them which would make the '21 YE
golfer base ~22-23M which would be a solid step forward over
the 2-yr period.
On the final metric of golf revenue, our back-of-the envelope math, based on the '20 weighted rate card from our
Internet Golf Course Database (IGDB) co-operative asset
and Stuart and my " Kentucky windage " (see Stuart's article
in this issue if you need a definition), suggests that after all
the puts & calls on playing group size, tee time spacings, cart
restrictions and shifts in % of total rounds to less reliance on
weekend primetime, we managed a 3-5% increase in golf revenue or +$0.5-$1.0B for the regulation length, public access
course universe in '20. The fact that we're flying blind on this
metric in probably the most critical year needed ('20, and '21
will be just as critical) is either criminal, negligent or both
as an industry. Rather than cursing the darkness, we're going to light a candle (hopefully a small campfire) in '21 with
the Golf Market Research Center (GMRC) and you'll hear
more about that in coming weeks. The basic premise is we've
built a web-portal system where facility owner-operators can
input 3 numbers each month (and up to 2 years history if you
want to see the comparative reporting features): Rounds, Golf
Revenue and highest WE Rate. What will you get? You'll get
access to:
*	
*	

*	

*	

A mini-market analysis specific to your Designated
Marketing Area (DMA)
A timeseries graph of monthly Rounds and Utilization (and later, Revenue and RevpAR) for all the
months data you input and any Year-to-Date (YtD)
period
A Comparative KPI report that runs your numbers
from rounds and revenue down to Utilization (automatically incorporating Pellucid's Golf Playable
Hours (GPH) specific to your facility/weather station), RevpAR and % Discount Rate; again for any
month or YtD period for the data you have input into
the portal
Based on the number and distribution of facility
types reporting in your DMA, we will also provide
benchmarking against the market (if the sample size
is small, still better than nothing) or your Pellucid
facility type peer group (better, Private, Public Regu-

www.PellucidCorp.com

lation Premium/Value/Price, Learning & Practice) for
the key metrics of rounds, golf revenue, Utilization,
RevpAR and % Discount Rate
The " greater good " for the industry will be, based on participation and quality of the data, we'll be able to project all of
the above metrics up into key markets and the national level.
Hence, monthly during '21 and critically at year end we'll have
visibility and accuracy to determine what the revenue impact/
upside to '21 vs. '20 was for decisions on " whence forward? " in
'22 and beyond. Come to think of it, if I had to sign up for a
BHAG in '21, that would be the one I could embrace and rush
headlong into. If we had 625 courses participating by midseason (25 courses (5 in each facility type " bucket " ) in the Top
25 markets), we could make everything above a reality and
actually navigate the " uglier comps " 2nd half of the season informed with accurate, consistent information; novel concept!
So what would " retain half the gain " translate to? For
rounds, it would be 463M rounds which, interestingly would
bend the 5-year Compound Annual Change Rate (CACR)
to positive vs. the previous -1% annual decline. As we also
pointed out in the SoI, it would keep us above the Supply/
Demand equilibrium mark which we've struggled with for
the past 15 years. It wouldn't necessarily mean that our geographic (by market) balance is right or the facility type mix
(Premium vs. non-Premium holes) is rectified but it would
support at the national level that we don't have to be on a
tear to plow up more courses in the next 3-5 years; wouldn't
that be a welcome change for all those stakeholders whose
livelihood depends on those distribution points? (not the least
the owner/operators of those facilities on-the-bubble?) On
golfers I've already outlined above that it would mean 1.5M
more bodies which translates to equipment, F&B (when it returns), green grass retail sales etc. etc. etc. Finally, on Revenue,
I think there's considerably more to be gained in '21 than half
of call it $1B because that number is suspect to start with
and I think operators now have a much better idea of how to
improve and maximize the revenue line in the post-COVID
world than what got thrown at them in '20. I'll tolerate the
industry power-brokers calling me the " industry pessimist " for
another year but, as the facts over the years have piled up in
my favor vs. " build a billion " and other catchy (1-yr) programs
have come and gone, I think this is a realistic and achievable
goal for a year that will be half COVID, half not. Maybe I'll
n
try my hand at BHAG in '22....likely not.
The Pellucid Perspective

5


http://WWW.PELLUCIDCORP.COM

The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021

TOC
Retain half the gain in ‘21; a realistic national industry rallying cry
Applying Kentucky Windage to distance debate, betting and 2020’s performance
January GPH gives a cold shoulder, lots of golf left to play though
Dec Utilization up on continued rounds strength, finishes the year ~60%!
Tampa weighs in at #20 in new ranking, can’t bring ourselves to call it “Cham-pa”...
Only 5 Activities but some interesting “story situations”
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - Retain half the gain in ‘21; a realistic national industry rallying cry
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 5
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - Applying Kentucky Windage to distance debate, betting and 2020’s performance
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 8
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - January GPH gives a cold shoulder, lots of golf left to play though
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - Dec Utilization up on continued rounds strength, finishes the year ~60%!
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - Tampa weighs in at #20 in new ranking, can’t bring ourselves to call it “Cham-pa”...
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - Only 5 Activities but some interesting “story situations”
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2021 - 17
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