The Pellucid Perspective - March 2021 - 10

WEATHER
IMPACT

FEBRUARY

February follows
Jan's " downer " beat

H

ave you ever heard the phrase, " Yeah, like when Hell
freezes over " ? Well, for parts of Texas the unthinkable
happened and the national weather picture for golf was
similarly ugly as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) declined 19% compared to the same month Year-Ago (YA). That basically mirrored the January picture so the Year-to-Date figure now rests at
-18% for our opening two months (ouch!). The pain was spread
over a broad swath of our in-season regions with YtD GPH
breadth worsening to 1:24 with 1 favorable region (HI, which is
still not yet fully in business) vs. 24 unfavorables rounded out by
2 in the neutral zone (+/- 2%) (the remaining 18 regions being
out-of-season). Subscribers to either the Pellucid Publications
Membership or the Geographic Weather Impact report get the
45 regional breakdowns, the 61 markets figures, the day-of-week
weather impact and the Year-End National GPH forecast figure
as well as our full commentary on the results every month. You
can get that full picture monthly one of three ways:
*	
*	
*	

	 ubscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership
S
	Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Report
(Nat'l, 45 regions, 61 markets monthly)
	Subscribe to Cognilogic (facility level, web-delivered,
unlimited access, updated daily)

Played Rounds for December published by Golf Datatech
posted an 8th consecutive month of double-digit gains (in the
face of a double-digit decline in GPH) reported at +21% for the
month which is also the YtD figure. Continuing the '20 pattern, Private outpaced Public (+29% vs. +19%) so COVID restrictions seem to smile more favorable on Private golf (at least
for the rounds metric, they're getting killed in events and F&B).
That robust January rounds demand strength, juxtaposed to the
17% GPH decline results in a 27 point Utilization gain (wow!)
for the month clocking in at an amazing 86%.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, " It almost seems like Mother
Nature feels we need some type of counterbalance to our COVIdend based on what she's dealt for Jan-Feb. We had favorable
weather the opening two months of last year (anyone remember
that pre-COVID period?) but our Jan-Feb is below the 10-yr
average by 10% so '21 has been abnormally low in the absolute and vs. '20 (that's one of the reasons we track the " norm " ).
Of interest also is that Florida's markets aren't participating in
the Utilization bonanza with Jacksonville leading (only up 5
points), the balance of markets being basically flat and Miami
actually showing a decline (rounds up 7% vs. +16% GPH)? So
far in '21 though in the tug-of-war between GPH and Rounds,
Rounds is winning although one could argue that the weather
is throttling what should be even higher demand.

10 The Pellucid Perspective

Pac
NW Cst N
Pac
Inland N

No
Rck Mt

Pac
NW Cst S
Pac
Inland S

C CA
Valley N
No
CA Coast

C CA
Valley C

So
CA Coast

No
NV

No
Int Mtn

So
NV

Cen
CA Val So

R

So
Int Mtn

Des
SW West

All eyes are on the forecast and watching the rounds played
numbers to see when (or if ) there will be a slackening of demand. Speaking of the forecast, there are a couple ways you can
peek into Pellucid's crystal ball:
*	 The '20 State of the Industry (SoI) has more details on
the market breakdowns, the long-range trends and the
'21 GPH forecast at the national level and 45 regions
which can be purchased here [hotlink to SoI $249 version]
*	 Pellucid is finalizing the launch of our Cognilogic Foresight product which will provide for any ZIP Code or
weather station assigned to a facility (we'll make the connection for you), a 60-day forecast of Capacity Rounds,
the high/lows and precip and a graph showing that '21
Capacity Rounds forecast against both last year and the
10-year average (by day!). Email Stuart Lindsay [hotlink
to edgehillgolf@msn.com] for more information
*	 Speaking of Foresight, it's also part of the Charter Member subscription package for Pellucid/Edgehill's latest
endeavor, the Golf Market Research Center (GMRC).
It's a facility comparative performance measurement system via the web for which we just launched the free pilot
period of 45 days for any facility owner/operator. You
March 2021

D
SW
https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Pellucid-Publications-Membership-c60126192 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Monthly-National-&-Regional-Key-Market-Tracking-p235240902 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Cognilogic-Facility-Level-Year-End-Report-Monthly-Updates-p235256610
The Pellucid Perspective - March 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - March 2021
