The Pellucid Perspective - April 2021 - 10

WEATHER
IMPACT

MARCH

Pac
NW Cst N

March Weather a
" Stabilizing Factor "

Pac
Inland N

A

fter February's national weather " trainwreck " , March
bounced back as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) advanced
1% compared to the same month Year-Ago (YA and
that being a healthy '20 " base month " ). That improved the Yearto-Date result which now rests at -9% for our opening quarter
(down from -19% last month). The unfavorability continues to
be spread over a broad swath of our in-season regions with YtD
GPH breadth resting at 1:10 with 2 favorable regions (HI and
Southeast Inland (Georgia & surrounds)) vs. 20 unfavorables
rounded out by 5 in the neutral zone (+/- 2%, the remaining
18 regions being out-of-season). You can get that full picture
monthly one of three ways:
*
*
*

Pac
Inland S

C CA
Valley N
No
CA Coast

C CA
Valley C

	 ubscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership
S
	Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Report
(Nat'l, 45 regions, 61 markets monthly)
	Subscribe to Cognilogic (facility level, web-delivered,
unlimited access, updated daily)

Played Rounds for February, as published by Golf Datatech,
broke our 8-month winning streak registering -5% for the month
reducing the YtD figure to +8%. Interestingly, the downward
figure was entirely attributable to the Public segment (-8%) while
Private continued its winning ways (+4%). The good news is that
the decline in rounds was fractional compared to the weather carnage for the month which means that Utilization gained for the
9th consecutive month, +10 pts, registering 77% for the month!
Jim Koppenhaver comments, " I missed my February prediction
that the month would still produce a rounds increase in light of
significant weather headwinds. In January we saw a 17% decline
in GPH swallowed up by a 21% increase in rounds but February
showed us a different look with the 19% decline in GPH being
met with a 5% decline in rounds so it appears that something is
shifting in the demand dynamic. We'll watch March with interest in light of the basically flat weather to see if we return to our
double-digit monthly rounds gains or if demand appears to be
moderating back to weather. Starting in March the " comps " on
the rounds side will start to act goofy in light of the baseline being
" month 1 " of the '20 serious COVID restrictions. We're expecting the Q2 rounds comps to be very favorable but followed by
very challenging comparisons for the balance of the year due to
elevated demand levels in '20 caused by the COVID restrictions.
In the last Outside the Ropes we published our quarterly " calls "
for the balance of the year. "
All eyes are on the forecast and watching the rounds played
numbers to see when (or if ) there will be a slackening of demand.
Speaking of the forecast, there are a couple ways you can peek
into Pellucid's crystal ball:

10 The Pellucid Perspective

No
Rck Mt

Pac
NW Cst S

So
CA Coast

No
NV

No
Int Mtn

So
NV

Cen
CA Val So

R

So
Int Mtn

Des
SW West

Key
>+2% vs. YA
+/- 2% vs. YA
>-2% vs. YA
No arrow = NA

* The '20 State of the Industry (SoI) has more details on the
market breakdowns, the long-range trends and the '21 GPH
forecast at the national level and 45 regions which can be purchased here.
* Pellucid is finalizing the launch of our Cognilogic Foresight
product which will provide for any ZIP Code or weather station
assigned to a facility (we'll make the connection for you), a 60day forecast of Capacity Rounds, the high/lows and precip and
a graph showing that '21 Capacity Rounds forecast against both
last year and the 10-year average (by day!). Email Stuart Lindsay
for more information
* Speaking of Foresight, it's also part of the Charter Member
subscription package for Pellucid/Edgehill's latest endeavor, the
Golf Market Research Center (GMRC). It's a facility comApril 2021

D
SW

https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Pellucid-Publications-Membership-c60126192 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Monthly-National-&-Regional-Key-Market-Tracking-p235240902 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Cognilogic-Facility-Level-Year-End-Report-Monthly-Updates-p235256610 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Full-State-of-the-Industry-portfolio-p235257954

The Pellucid Perspective - April 2021

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