The Pellucid Perspective - April 2021 - 15

lic Value, Price and Learning & Practice) is 55%/45% which
nearly mirrors the national average of 54%/46%. Within
Public-Regulation golf, the distribution between Premium/
Value/Price is 39%/41%/20% which is slightly over-weighted
to Pub-Value at the expense of Pub-Price vs. the national picture of 39%/37%/24%. Remember also that we establish the
Premium/Value/Price segments by individual market so that's
factoring in differences in cost of living/cost of golf as we cross
markets (unlike NGF where Manhattan NY has the same price
segmentation as Manhattan KS, go figure).
Using our methodology for calculating Supply/Demand
equilibrium and how the picture has changed from '00-'19
based on rounds demand change vs.
supply change, you can see in the table
above that Supply expanded a modest 6% over that period, significantly
lower than the national average of 11%
(which represents a Compound Annual Change Rate (CACR) of roughly
0.6%). On the facility-reported rounds
demand side of the equilibrium equation, that modest supply expansion was
accompanied by a modest rounds demand decline over the '00-'19 period
of 4%, roughly half the decline of the
benchmark US level (-7%). The confluence of these two factors results in
the cumulative supply dilution resting at -10% or about half the national
benchmark of -17%. This suggests that
Cleveland's hill to climb back to supply/demand balance is not as steep/
long as the national recovery. We'll see
how the '20 results and the upcoming
'21 season help that effort specific to
Cleveland.
Looking at the productivity of the
average facility using our proprietary
velocity measure, they produce ~ 31K
rounds per year which is well above the
national average of ~27K. Applying
our industry-exclusive Utilization measure (played rounds/capacity rounds),
we see that, after weather adjustment,
the market significantly outperforms
the US " productivity " rate with a 61%
Utilization Rate (144 index).
In summary, Cleveland was ahead
of the curve in market recovery prior
to COVID and moved up 5+ places in
our annual ranking as a result. Even
if they simply pace the COVIdend in
'20-'21 it should result in them being
one of the fully-recovered markets by
the end of '21 the way we currently
forecast this season performing on
www.PellucidCorp.com

Rounds and Golf Revenue. If we have enough and the right
balance of courses participating in the Golf Market Research
Center initiative the balance of this season, we'll have the empirical scorecard on this come December vs. having to " reasonable guess " at it again.
If you'd like more detailed market profiling there are 3 ways
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The Pellucid Perspective - April 2021

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